Preview: UFC 311 Prelims

Flyweights

#11 FLW | Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2, 4-1 UFC) vs. Clayton Carpenter (8-0, 2-0 UFC)

ODDS: Ulanbekov (-325), Carpenter (+260)

Two relatively inactive flyweights look to kick off 2025 with some momentum in this pairing. Ulanbekov came to the UFC with a decent amount of hype as the latest Dagestani looking to make an impact back in 2020, and while he might not have championship-level upside, it would be nice to see him in the cage more often. Ulanbekov has about the game you would expect, centering his approach around wrestling and grappling with some flashy striking mixed in. While he’s technically sound, he’s also large and on the slower side in the UFC’s fastest division, which makes for some entertaining dynamics as Ulanbekov attempts to lock down his smaller but speedier opponents. That has also led to some close fights, though a dominant win over Cody Durden at the end of 2023 served as a reminder that Ulanbekov can put in a strong performance after over a year on the shelf. After now missing all of 2024, Ulanbekov needs to re-establish himself once again with a victory over Carpenter.

Carpenter was an interesting prospect when he earned a contract on the Contender Series in 2022 despite a flat performance relative to his expectations. However, that has aged better with his opponent, Edgar Chairez, now establishing himself as a solid UFC-level flyweight. That was clearly the toughest test of Carpenter’s young career at the time and remains so, which makes his current standing a bit hard to parse. His offense-heavy and hard-charging style has allowed him to run through Juancamilo Ronderos and Lucas Rocha, but between a weak level of opposition and some long stretches between fights, it’s hard to tell how much he has evolved his game to look more impressive against a massive jump back up in competition against Ulanbekov. It would be a surprise if this was a blowout in either direction given Carpenter’s status as both the rawer prospect and more explosive athlete. He should be able to take the initiative enough to cause Ulanbekov some problems, but it’s unclear who will actually be able to come out the better fighter once this actually goes to the mat. The Russian gets the benefit of the doubt as the more proven quantity, but this is essentially a coinflip. The pick is Ulanbekov via decision.

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Ulanbekov vs. Carpenter