Preview: UFC 311 Prelims

Heavyweights

#6 HW | Jailton Almeida (21-3, 7-1 UFC) vs. #7 HW | Serghei Spivac (17-4, 8-4 UFC)

ODDS: Almeida (-425), Spivac (+330)

Wrestlers and grapplers are rare among the UFC’s heavyweight ranks, but this pairing picks up where Almeida and Spivac each left off in 2024, continuing to face opponents that are also at their best on the mat. Almeida entered 2024 as a potential title contender after a breakout 2023 campaign—part of the Brazilian’s run up the heavyweight ranks that was never even supposed to happen in the first place. Almeida entered the UFC as a top prospect at light heavyweight, but after some late-notice changes forced him to take a fight up at heavyweight, he decided to just stick in the division since he could still outwrestle much larger men. However, Almeida wound up starting 2024 on the wrong foot, suffering the first loss of his career after getting knocked out by Curtis Blaydes. A perennial contender, Blaydes is likely the UFC’s best wrestler at heavyweight and quickly got the ball rolling towards a finish the first time he was able to stall Almeida out. Almeida’s next assignment came a few months later in the form of Alexander Romanov, another wrestler, and to the Brazilian’s credit, he went back to business as usual, with “Malhadinho” finding a quick takedown and submission. Almeida looks to keep the ball rolling against Moldova’s Spivac, who has plateaued just short of potential contender status but has carved out a similar niche as a specialist on the ground.

Like Almeida, Spivac looks to get the fight to the mat and figure out the rest later, but while he’s more active than the Brazilian in terms of throwing out offense, “The Polar Bear” isn’t the same level of athlete. That has led to moments where Spivac hits an athletic wall and hits it hard, which came in his 2023 loss to Ciryl Gane. The Moldovan at least did well to score the best comeback of his UFC career in August, finding an armbar from bottom when things quickly went south against Marcin Tybura. Spivac might be able to pull off the same trick here, but Almeida looks to be the much safer bet to win this race to a finish, as his superior athleticism should allow him to find the first takedown and work on his terms. The pick is Almeida via first-round submission.

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