Preview: UFC 311 Prelims

Lightweights

Grant Dawson (22-2-1, 10-1-1 UFC) vs. Diego Ferreira (19-5, 10-5 UFC)

ODDS: Dawson (-258), Ferreira (+210)

Dawson made his UFC debut as a featherweight back in 2019 and hit the ground running, racking up win after win with a fairly simple game plan centered around scoring takedowns and hunting for rear-naked chokes. Things didn’t change much once “KGD” moved up to lightweight, save for displaying better cardio in fights that tended to last a bit longer, and he continued to run up the ranks as an effective—if often unexciting—prospect. Dawson’s success eventually became undeniable, earning him his first main event slot late in 2023 against Bobby Green, at which point his momentum came to a screeching halt. Green was able to tag him in just 33 seconds, sending Dawson hurtling back down the card. Dawson’s next fight didn’t see him adjust much after the loss, as he grinded out another victory against Joe Solecki, but an October win over Rafa Garcia was a bit more promising, as he did the best job of his career of pouring on offense while maintaining his dominance on the mat. Given that performance, it’s unsurprising to see Dawson get thrown back into the fire against Ferreira, who looks to replicate the surprisingly resurgent form of his last fight.

Ferreira’s peak came around the time Dawson was making his UFC debut, as the Brazilian was one of the most underrated fighters on the roster. Capable of countering opponents effectively as both a striker and a grappler, Ferreira would constantly force opponents into bad positions, relying on his toughness and cardio to eventually break his foes. A win over Anthony Pettis to kick off 2020 figured to be Ferreira’s launching pad into contender status, but it subsequently looked like a last hurrah as he lost a step in his late 30s. Going nip-tuck in a loss to Beneil Dariush was understandable, but Ferreira’s gas tank betrayed him against Gregor Gillespie and he got injured in a scramble against Mateusz Gamrot, leading to a long layoff and a flat return performance—albeit in a win—against Michael Johnson. That made it a shock when Ferreira turned back the clock against hard-charging prospect Mateusz Rebecki in his lone fight of 2024, surviving a rough start and staging a massive comeback once the Pole became the latest opponent to break against him. Ferreira could certainly pull that trick again, but Dawson does seem to have ironed out a lot of the issues with his gas tank that have marked the earlier parts of his career. Add in how sharp he looked against Garcia even against his usual successful standard, and the American should be able to get this over the finish line. The pick is Dawson via decision.

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