Preview: UFC 303 Prelims

Heavyweights

Martin Buday (13-2, 4-1 UFC) vs. Andrei Arlovski (34-23, 23-17 UFC)

ODDS: Buday (-258), Arlovski (+210)

It does seem like Arlovski’s prolific career is entering its final phase now that the former UFC heavyweight champion is in his mid-40s, but it’s always hard to entirely write “The Pit Bull” off. It has been about a decade and a half since Arlovski suffered a string of knockouts and flat performances that had most hoping for his retirement, but he somehow persevered, rediscovering his durability enough to return to the UFC and even charge up the ladder to the fringes of title contention. Arlovski’s career has been continued on as a series of runs, with him either chaining together crafty victories or going on a disheartening losing streak, but there was always the feeling that he’d eventually find his floor. If an opponent couldn’t knock Arlovski out or consistently outwrestle him, he’d be able to patch enough things together to score the decision victory. However, Arlovski does look to have slipped enough for that to no longer be guaranteed. Don’Tale Mayes, the type of aimless athlete Arlovski usually outworks, was able to knock out the Belarusian, and Waldo Cortes-Acosta’s limited game was enough to coast out a decision win against him. Given those results, this fight against Buday seems to be a rough matchup. The Slovakian might be coming off a disheartening loss, but he has generally learned to put things together and pour on the pressure. Buday’s style can be a bit ugly at times, as “Badys” can often rely on his size to neutralize and smother his opponents, but he’s increasingly able to keep plodding forward and make things happen. While his durability surprisingly betrayed him against Shamil Gaziev in December, Buday has historically been quite difficult to hurt or discourage from moving forward. It’s a stylistic matchup that has been difficult for Arlovski even in his better moments of the past decade, so unless the Gaziev loss has made Buday increasingly cautious, this looks like a clear win for the relative upstart. The pick is Buday via second-round stoppage.

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