Preview: UFC 303 Prelims

Bantamweights

Ricky Simon (20-5, 8-4 UFC) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (20-3, 1-0 UFC)

ODDS: Simon (-218), Oliveira (+180)

This has the potential to be a barnburner, which is true of a lot of Oliveira’s fights. “Lok Dog” has been on the verge of a UFC callup for a while, and despite having nearly a decade of professional experience under his belt, the Brazilian has the game of a much younger man. Large and rangy for the bantamweight division, Oliveira mostly looks to stalk forward and hunt for the knockout. Given that there isn’t much defense built into that approach, Oliveira can often eat as much offense as he dishes out, but when things finally click, the results can be spectacular. He had a fairly pedestrian UFC debut against Benardo Sopai, until he was able to pour things on late and end the fight with a particularly brutal flying knee. That highlight-reel knockout was apparently enough for the UFC to decide to throw Oliveira right into the deep end and see if he can become an immediate contender, as Simon is just two fights removed from a five-fight winning streak and a main event spot. Simon came to the UFC in 2018 with a similarly reckless style built entirely around offense, but after a rough 2019 that included a 46-second knockout loss to Urijah Faber, he learned to fight behind a more calculated style. Simon’s combination of well-roundedness, athleticism and durability have seen him turn minor advantages into dominant victories, but his last two fights—losses to Yadong Song and Mario Bautista—have seen that work in the inverse. Both opponents were able to neutralize Simon’s wrestling and sting him on the feet, leaving him unable to find a point to pry the fight open. If nothing else, Simon’s wrestling and grappling should be a clear safety valve against Oliveira’s wide-open defense, but the American should also be able to take the tough route and win a shot-for-shot war of attrition on the feet, if needed. The pick is Simon via third-round submission.

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