Preview: UFC 303 Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

Gillian Robertson (13-8, 10-6 UFC) vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12, 6-8 UFC)

ODDS: Robertson (-185), Waterson-Gomez (+154)

This is an interesting fight between two strawweight veterans in need of some momentum. At 29 years old, Robertson still has the potential for improvement, but she seems to mostly be a finished product in terms of overall approach. For now, it’s just a matter of waiting to see if things fully click through comfort and experience. “The Savage” came to the UFC through “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2017 and looked like an interesting long-term prospect, mostly on the back of an impressively vicious grappling game that found some unexpected submissions. Those skills have translated nicely over the ensuing six and a half years—Robertson has the most submission wins of any woman in UFC history—but things have been much more of an adventure on the feet. She has obviously put in the work from a technical standpoint, but things tend to go south in the face of much resistance, whether it’s Robertson becoming uncomfortable when she gets hit hard or her being unable to track down opponents who stay at range. A cut down to 115 pounds in 2023 hasn’t changed those dynamics much, as Robertson is still a crushing grappler who now has to deal with even faster opponents on the feet, so the hope is that she keeps winning about two-thirds of her fights until she finds the comfort for a late-career championship run. Waterson-Gomez makes for an interesting test in the meantime, as “The Karate Hottie” might be in her career-best form at age 38 despite losing six of her last seven. A natural atomweight when the UFC signed her in 2015, Waterson-Gomez figured to have a low ceiling as an undersized striker up at strawweight, but she proved to have a surprisingly successful front half of her UFC career. She added enough bulk to be credible as a wrestler, and the switch-up between that and her range-focused striking style was enough to stay ahead of more limited opponents. However, the combination of Waterson-Gomez fighting her way into more high-profile fights and the strawweight division filling up with younger athletes has caused her to hit a clear ceiling. Her skills are as sharp as ever, but relative powerhouses like Amanda Lemos and Luana Pinheiro have left Waterson-Gomez with little margin for error to get a win over the finish line. Robertson isn’t that type of athlete, which makes this the American’s most advantageous matchup in a while. Robertson could still cause plenty of damage if she can get this fight to the ground, but Waterson-Gomez appears fast enough that she can dictate the terms of engagement. The pick is Waterson-Gomez via decision.

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