Preview: UFC 190 ‘Rousey vs. Correia’

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Heavyweights

Antonio Silva (18-7-1, 2-4-1 UFC) vs. Soa Palelei (22-4, 4-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Heavyweight bruisers clash, as former title challenger Silva draws Australia’s Palelei. Silva rebounded from a brutal loss to Cain Velasquez in his UFC debut with a pair of upset wins over Travis Browne and Alistair Overeem, but he since lost three of his last four by knockout. Palelei has done yeoman’s work in the division since returning almost two years ago, and he got back on track after a loss to Jared Rosholt by knocking out Walt Harris in November. The winner will likely earn a berth against a top-10 opponent by default.

A former Olympic wrestler for Australia, Palelei has extraordinary physical gifts, with great strength, explosiveness and power in his hands. He has some skill as a striker, flicking a jab, a hard straight right and the occasional high kick with good timing and pop but little volume. The core of Palelei’s game remains his wrestling, however. He times his takedowns nicely, with a real gift for ducking under and hitting reactive shots. He has tremendous drive and finishes with authority, and should his initial shot fail, he chains well. From top position, Palelei is a monster. His boulder-like base makes him nearly impossible to shake off; he passes to half guard and mount with surprising fluidity; and he needs only one or two clean shots to put his opponent to sleep. On the downside, cardio has been a consistent issue for Palelei, and if his opponent succeeds in stuffing his shots, he has little to offer in extended striking sequences.

Silva looks to be at the end of his career. He has not looked right physically since going off testosterone replacement therapy and seems to lack any ability to take a clean punch. It is a pity, because Silva in his prime was a fine fighter; whether he can apply these skills now is an open question. He throws a quick straight right both as a lead and a counter and mixes up round, front and side kicks at range. His defense has always been a real problem, and his increasing issues with absorbing damage make that worse. He remains a strong clinch fighter, with nice trips, good control and hard knees, he and gets most of his takedowns from the tie-ups. Shot takedowns are not his strength, but he generally defends well. On the mat, Silva maintains stifling control with an unshakeable base, passes effortlessly to the mount and drops powerful ground strikes.

BETTING ODDS: Palelei (-180), Silva (Even)

THE PICK: Given how shot Silva has looked in his last two fights, it is impossible to feel comfortable picking him here. Palelei is not a world-beater, but he remains quick, powerful and a tremendous wrestler. I think he will either land a big shot on the hittable Silva on the feet or get a takedown and pound him out from the top. The pick is Palelei by knockout in the first round.

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