Preview: UFC 190 ‘Rousey vs. Correia’

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Women’s Strawweights

Claudia Gadelha (12-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Jessica Aguilar (19-4, 0-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Former World Series of Fighting champion Aguilar might be the best strawweight in the world, and she gets her chance to prove it with a tough debut against Brazil’s Gadelha. Aguilar has won 10 in a row since a split decision loss to Zoila Frausto nearly five years ago, with victories over Megumi Fuji, Lisa Ellis and former UFC champion Carla Esparza in that time. Gadelha dropped a razor-thin scrap to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in December and is the only fighter to give the champion much of a fight.

Gadelha is a plus athlete and a three-dimensional fighter with legitimate skills in every area. She looks the part of a Nova Uniao-trained fighter on the feet, with a crisp jab, smooth combinations both moving forward and on the counter and potent low kicks. She is comfortable exchanging in the pocket and pulls her head offline nicely as she throws. Gadelha’s work in the clinch is even better. She times her entries beautifully and works strong control, mixing sharp knees with a blend of slick trips and throws. Her shot takedowns are less imposing, but she boasts nearly impenetrable takedown defense. Her work from top position is everything you would expect from an Andre Pederneiras black belt, with silky-smooth passes, an unshakeable base and an arsenal of submissions.

Aguilar is known mostly as a wrestler, but she is a complete and well-rounded fighter at this stage of her career. She has clean footwork and good movement, flicking a probing jab and the occasional kick to the thigh or calf at range as she aggressively stalks her opponent. The right hand is her money punch, and she throws it constantly. She often doubles it up and is comfortable throwing it as a lead or as a counter. The only real problem is Aguilar’s occasional tendency to stand in front of her opponent after she throws, which makes her more hittable than she needs to be. Wrestling is the real strength of her game. She does an excellent job of disguising her shots with strikes or timing reactive takedowns as her opponent comes forward, and she gets tremendous drive and lift on her preferred double-legs. On the mat, she passes well, maintains good posture and can drop potent ground strikes. Submissions are not the strongest part of Aguilar’s game, but she can find the occasional arm triangle from the top.

BETTING ODDS: Gadelha (-400), Aguilar (+330)

THE PICK: This looks like a coin flip between two well-rounded, diverse and physical fighters. I lean slightly toward Gadelha, however. Her willingness and ability to exchange in the pocket, her skill on the counter and her crisper combinations should give her a slight edge on the feet against the more predictable Aguilar; and her takedown defense is good enough to stuff the shots and keep this standing. The pick is Gadelha by decision.

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