The Bottom Line: The Paddy Pimblett Conundrum

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Broadly speaking, it’s good to be “Paddy the Baddy.” Paddy Pimblett has turned himself into a star in short order, breaking through in what is generally a tough atmosphere for fighters with limited experience at the top levels of the sport. Even if he proves not to be a Top 15-caliber fighter, he’ll be making nice paydays and commanding attention for some time to come. His first two Ultimate Fighting Championship appearances have been a little bumpy against limited competition, but he’s still 2-0 with two first-round finishes. Even more notable is the way the sold-out crowd reacted to him on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London, with help from the greatest hype person since Flavor Flav and a damn good fighter in her own right, “Meatball” Molly McCann. The enthusiasm was undeniable.

While generally things are on the upswing for Pimblett, he has created a bit of a conundrum for himself in the form of undefeated Georgian Ilia Topuria. It’s a problem he’s going to have to find a way to address because as much as Pimblett would likely prefer for it to go away, it’s hard to imagine that will happen. After the altercation between Pimblett and Topuria—as well as the words Topuria had for Pimblett after he knocked out Jai Herbert—there are plenty more questions coming Pimblett’s way about Topuria.

Even if there was such a weight difference between Pimblett and Topuria that they couldn’t possibly fight, the growing issue between the two still wouldn’t be good for Pimblett. While he was still a beloved figure in his home country at UFC Fight Night 204, the optics of the issue between the two aren’t good for Pimblett. His original comment making light of Russian incursions into Georgian territory was never a good idea, but it became all the harder to justify with the more recent and more high-profile Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It’s just not in Pimblett’s interest for fans to learn about why Topuria hates him, as it makes Topuria broadly sympathetic and contradicts the likable brand Pimblett is trying to build. Making one’s self a villain can be quite effective in MMA, but it isn’t what Pimblett is currently attempting to do. Pimblett has tried to walk back what he posted, but it’s not a good storyline for some fans to learn about who he is.

There is then the matter of having to fight Topuria. I am not of the belief that there are many UFC-level fighters who are afraid to fight anyone else. That’s the job, and it takes great courage and self-belief to fight professionally and make it to the top level of the sport. With that said, rising up as a fighter is about risk management. Fighters who are perceived to have a lot of potential star power tend to get fights with a good risk-reward ratio when they are on the rise, while fighters not perceived to be potential stars will often get opponents where the risk-reward ratio is not so great. Pimblett seems completely disinterested in fighting Topuria, and there’s good reason for that: The risk-reward ratio in taking the fight is not very good.

Topuria is largely an unknown entity to MMA fans at this point, but with an undefeated record, some impressive knockouts and a formidable ground game, he is a dangerous opponent for anyone. In short, he’s hard to beat, and if you beat him, it doesn’t get you that far. Moreover, he’s probably best suited for the featherweight division and looks quite undersized fighting at lightweight. As such, if Pimblett were to beat him, his doubters would have a built-in excuse: He was fighting someone who should be competing at a lower weight class anyway.

Under different circumstances, this would be no big deal. After all, there are plenty of dangerous, relatively unknown fighters out there who just aren’t going to be matched against rising stars they would be favored to beat. They issue their challenges to the stars after their wins, and they’re right back fighting another unknown opponent on the prelims next time out. What distinguishes Topuria and makes him a particular problem for Pimblett is that there is no other feasible opponent who would draw the same or even comparable interest to the Pimblett-Topuria bout. It’s the natural, obvious fight that fans are going to want to see for Pimblett. He is neither too far above nor too far below Topuria to avoid that fight without fans drawing the conclusion that two fights into his UFC career, Pimblett is ducking opponents. To say the least, that’s not good for his reputation.

Topuria won’t even need to apply much pressure at this point. The hotel altercation has added enough fuel to the fire already, and there is no obvious alternative for Pimblett. The choice for him and for the UFC is an unpleasant one. Option 1 is to accept the fight and risk a major early setback without even that much of an upside if he wins. Option 2 is to avoid the fight that fans most want to see him take, while his rival calls him a coward in the press. For as charmed of a UFC existence as Pimblett has had thus far, Topuria has put him in an awfully undesirable position.