Smartest Guy at the Bar: UFC 181 Edition

---

UFC 181 “Hendricks vs. Lawler 2” gives fight fans a nice doubleheader of title fights to go with leftover Thanksgiving turkey sandwiches. After suffering through awkward family discussions for an Ultimate Fighting Championship-less weekend, the tireless Zuffa schedule picks up where it left off on Saturday at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas. Eight events in three different countries fill the December-January slate, which includes four title fights, “The Ultimate Fighter 20” Finale and one fiery Irishman.

HOW WE GOT HERE: Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler delivered a “Fight of the Year” contender at UFC 171 in March. Hendricks usually only needs a couple of punches to end his opponent’s night, but he used volume instead in his first encounter with Lawler, landing a UFC title-fight record 158 significant strikes on his way to a unanimous decision win. Not to be ignored, Lawler landed 150, good for fourth on the all-time list for championship bouts. Why not do it again? In true UFC champion fashion, Hendricks spent the last nine months licking his wounds, as a biceps injury kept the two-time NCAA wrestling champion on the shelf. Lawler, on the other hand, stayed busy. He dismantled Jake Ellenberger in May and defeated Matt Brown in July ... The co-main event delivers another champion coming off an injury in a co-headliner featuring an all-steak-no-sizzle opposing coaching tandem from “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 20. Anthony Pettis makes his first title defense 15 months after he won the lightweight crown, as a knee injury kept him out of a title bout with Josh Thomson in December 2013. Gilbert Melendez, meanwhile, earned his second UFC title fight on the back of some crafty negotiating. Do not get me wrong: the Skrap Pack leader’s body of work is impeccable. However, the 32-year-old lost his UFC debut to Benson Henderson and rebounded in a decision win against Diego Sanchez, who has not won a non-controversial decision since 2010. That is not exactly a victory that propels one into title discussions. In true Cesar Gracie form, the former Strikeforce champion made his move at the negotiating table. With his contract up, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt offered his services to the highest bidder knowing the UFC would likely match any offer. Bellator MMA called, but when the dust settled, Melendez remained on the UFC roster. He also emerged with a coaching spot on “The Ultimate Fighter,” a slew of television work and a title shot. Pay attention UFC fighters who complain about money.

G.O.A.T. CONSIDERATIONS: Melendez may have massaged his current position in the conference room, but there is no question he is an all-time great at 155 pounds. Should he dethrone Pettis, he might be in the running for best-ever at the weight class. The adolescent division boasts B.J. Penn and Takanori Gomi as the leading contenders for all-time greatness. Gomi’s run in Pride Fighting Championships from 2004-06 is the crown jewel of his career. Penn boasts wins over Gomi, Sanchez, Jens Pulver, Sean Sherk and Kenny Florian at 155 pounds. However, inconsistency hurts his case in a division many believe he would have dominated for years had he not gone big-game hunting in higher weight classes. Melendez has the consistency and the hardware. The former Strikeforce and World Extreme Cagefighting champion was also undefeated in Shooto and Pride, and he has avenged both of his non-UFC losses. He best wins include a prime Tatsuya Kawajiri, Clay Guida, Mitsuhiro Ishida, Josh Thomson, Shiya Aoki and Jorge Masvidal. Depending on how high one ranks Thomson and where one stands on Melendez’s controversial decision loss to Henderson, a win over Pettis could propel the wrestler from Santa Ana, Calif., to the top of the all-time lightweight list.

WELCOME BACK: Pettis and Hendricks will have held their respective belts for a combined 728 days by the time UFC 181 arrives, yet they will be making their first title defenses. Hendricks has a track record of good health, but a case could be made that someone should wrap Pettis in bubble paper between bouts. Since the WEC merger in 2010, the oft-injured “Showtime” has made only five appearances inside the UFC’s Octagon. As a point of reference, former Pettis opponent Donald Cerrone has fought 15 times in that span. Pettis does not take a lot of damage in his fights, either; according to FightMetric figures, he only absorbs 1.32 strikes per minute -- second-fewest among active UFC lightweights. Perhaps his handlers should re-evaluate his training methods.

SAY WHAT: Flat performances often follow long, injury-induced layoffs, or so conventional thinking goes. In a sport predicated on split-second timing and athleticism, time away from competition can throw off the calibration of a fighter’s metronome. However, Pettis is anything but conventional, as he has followed injury after injury with incredible performance after incredible performance. His longtime trainer, Duke Roufus addressed those concerns with SiriusXM Fight Club in a recent interview: “It’s nothing new for him. He had a shoulder injury, a hand injury. He had shoulder surgery after the Joe Lauzon fight. We saw how he performed after that.” Pettis followed his head-kick knockout out against Lauzon with a body-kick knockout of Cerrone.

USELESS FACT: UFC 181 marks the company’s 300th event. It took Zuffa 5,118 days to get to its 100th event (UFC 78), another 1,567 days to reach its 200th (UFC on FX “Alves vs. Kampmann”) and another 1,007 days to arrive at No. 300. At this rate, expect the Ultimate Fighting Championship to schedule its 400th event in the next 45 minutes or so.

PROSPECTING: Eddie Gordon and Corey Anderson are two of the quietest “Ultimate Fighter” winners in the history of the reality series. They made almost no noise during their respective runs on Season 19. Little heat between coaches Penn and Frankie Edgar and few enticing prospects led to low ratings and virtually no intrigue. However, Gordon and Anderson turned heads at the finale, knocking out their opponents in a shade more than a minute. They remain raw but appear to be developing rapidly, and they will enter their UFC 181 matches as slight favorites. Provided they receive some comfortable, developmental matchmaking, they will be prospects worth following.

AWARDS WATCH: Tony Ferguson has really developed into a talented boxer. He is equipped with a 76.5-inch reach, a credible wrestling background and high-level training partners. He should be able to put it all together against the heavy-handed but relatively predictable Abel Trujillo. Expect a fun fight and a “Performance of the Night”-worthy effort from “The Ultimate Fighter 13” winner … Urijah Faber may get new life in the division if Dominick Cruz beats reigning bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw in their yet-to-be-announced title bout. Throttling dangerous puncher Francisco Rivera in the Fox Sports 1 featured prelim will help his cause. Rivera has scorching power but should be easily out-finessed by Faber, a savvy grappler and veteran. “The California Kid” collects a $50,000 bonus check in the process … The first Hendricks-Lawler scrap ranks right up there with the best welterweight title fights in history. Every strike thrown was punishing, which makes their combined 308 significant strikes landed even more impressive. Ironically, the damage they sustained in their first contest could render both fighters ill-equipped to repeat absorbing that kind of wear and tear. Do not expect the pure volume and power of their punches to drop, but look for another equally brutal bout with a greater likelihood of a finish. This is a no-brainer for “Fight of the Night.”