Prime Picks: UFC 271 ‘Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday heads to the most populous city in Texas to stage a pay-per-view card for the third time in a year. It will give attending fans a full slate of fights, with 15 bouts billed for the event and lines ranging from pick-’ems to favorites around -400. With a wide swath of betting options comes plenty of ways to make some bank, and the UFC 271 edition of Prime Picks brings with it a headlining rematch that should not be quite as dramatic as the first meeting, Houston’s favorite son with a favorable matchup, a contender who has a distinct way to spring an upset and a heavyweight mainstay who cannot be written off.

Israel Adesanya-Robert Whittaker Goes Over 4.5 Rounds (-135)

In order to spring the significant (+225) upset, Whittaker will have to fight perfectly. The first fight could not have gone better for Adesanya, picking his shots and busting up Whittaker repeatedly until the finish materialized in the middle of Round 2. “The Last Stylebender” would sting Whittaker, and Whittaker would try to answer back, only to get tagged. This approach, per Whittaker himself, was uncharacteristic and something he has since corrected. Whether the stress of being champ, the frustration of someone landing cleanly on him or his inability to find his own range on a man with a seven-inch reach advantage, Whittaker was out of the fight almost as soon as it started. He will have to retool his game plan significantly, and it would result in the type of fight that would likely win him a decision and not merit a stoppage.

The strategy Jan Blachowicz used to hand Adesanya his first career defeat is not an easily replicable feat, as Marvin Vettori found out to his detriment in their rematch. Even though the Italian put the champ on his back more than once, Adesanya was never down for long and always made Vettori pay for his attempts to do so. A natural middleweight like Whittaker does not have the frame of a Blachowicz, in weight or stature, and cannot hold down the Nigerian-born Adesanya for long, especially if the larger Vettori could not. Adesanya will need to keep his preferred range, and there may come a time where he actively mimics the red cloth that a matador holds when the bull in Whittaker careens towards him, possibly in pursuit of a takedown. While Adesanya clearly holds the power to put “The Reaper” away, a less reckless Whittaker can survive the worst of the exchanges as rounds progress.

As a -265 favorite, the moneyline on Adesanya is fair and reasonable given their history and what it takes to actually upend him. Whittaker may find himself in a precarious predicament in the cage, unsafe at a patient distance where he will get picked off from afar and in danger in boxing range where Adesanya’s sharp counters inevitably find his face. Setting up takedowns will be crucial, and Whittaker can utilize his effective jab to back up Adesanya against the wall to tie him up. From the clinch, Whittaker can fish for trips and sneak in cheeky short elbows, doing enough to convince judges to score the round in his favor. This approach will need to be executed for five full rounds, and it still might not be enough to take home a win if Adesanya has his moments on the feet. Unless “Bobby Knuckles” regresses into his form from their first meeting, trying to get one back after taking one, a more patient Whittaker can make it to the final bell, win or lose.

Derrick Lewis Wins by TKO/KO (-110)

Most of the intangibles coming into this co-main event are in Lewis’ favor. He is undefeated in his birth month of February (7-0) and terrific in his home state of Texas (10-1); the matchup is a three-round affair, he comes in with none of the extra pressure on his side fighting for a belt in front of his own crowd and holds a mindset that does not get overwhelmed by his accolades. In this favorable stylistic clash, Lewis is favored to get the win over fellow fan favorite Tai Tuivasa, so much so that a knockout is even odds. To achieve this feat would set the UFC’s all-time record for the most finishes in heavyweight history, all while extending a litany of his own knockout-related records. Tuivasa’s brawl-first style will play right into Lewis’ hands. “The Black Beast” will welcome the exchanges and meet the Aussie coming at him, possibly even with one of his ferocious uppercuts—the kind that recently melted Curtis Blaydes.

“Bam Bam” has had a UFC tenure with its ups and downs, and the streaks and skids are consistent. Tuivasa started in the UFC with three straight wins, then fell short three times in a row and now he rides a four-bout knockout streak into this high-stakes heavyweight tilt. The boisterous, beer-chugging heavyweight does not fear a slugfest, and that rarely works against him. However, the shift in level of competition, from the likes of Augusto Sakai and Stefan Struve to Lewis, is significant and Lewis’ deceptively fast style and ridiculous equalizing power eclipses that of Tuivasa. Greg Hardy hurt Tuivasa before the Aussie came back strong, and Lewis hits much harder than the former football player. The under of 1.5 rounds is a fairly safe bet given what these two bring to the table, and at -175, that under could stand on its own. Bet on a knockout, one way or another, but Lewis should be the one to emerge from this heavyweight throwdown.

Derek Brunson (+145)

The winner of this middleweight matchup will most likely be the man to take on the triumphant headliner, and both Brunson and Jared Cannonier know the stakes. Combining for 75 years on the planet, this is likely the final run for each man, and they both possess a clear path to victory. For Cannonier, chopping down the lead leg with brutal kicks and preparing counters for the likely oncoming Strikeforce veteran will be crucial. Brunson will need to push the pace, punching his way into clinch situations where he can change levels and implement his Division II wrestling acumen. Few have grounded a middleweight Cannonier and even fewer have kept him there for long, but they have not brought the same grappling chops to the table. Unless he gets caught, a la Jack Hermansson with a speedy intercepting uppercut, Brunson’s wrestling will make all the difference.

“The Killa Gorilla” feasts on foes by sitting back and pot shotting with ruthless single strikes and unanswered leg kicks. A few years ago, a reckless Brunson would charge forward to shut those down, swinging wild hooks and likely getting clipped on the way in. Accompanied by his Simon Phoenix-esque blonde dye job, the North Carolinian has vastly improved his fight IQ and has proved this with a string of growingly impressive triumphant performances. The Brunson who succumbs to a first-round knockout appears to be a thing of the past, and he has heavily leaned on his takedown game to shut down and even put away a few opponents in recent memory. Fighting off takedowns will take the sting out of Cannonier’s strikes, and Brunson has a very foreseeable path to victory by trapping him against the fence, tripping him to the mat and threatening with mat returns while exhausting his gas tank. As an underdog, no specific prop bet is necessary to maximize gains for Brunson.

Andrei Arlovski (-145)

Dating back to the beginning of 2020, Arlovski is 4-1 with a lone defeat to surging up-and-coming Brit Tom Aspinall. His four wins have come against fair competition, with his best win a recent clear-cut decision over Carlos Felipe. The power of “The Pit Bull” has unquestionably faded over the years, with all eight of his most recent victories coming on the scorecards, but he has acclimated to this shift. Using quick footwork, sharp technical boxing and decent head movement for a round and a half—long enough for both participants to likely lose their one-shot knockout potential—the Belarusian has made it work, even after surpassing his 43rd birthday on Feb. 4. The move to American Top Team has helped his defensive prowess, with a strategy that even holds up as he fatigues later in his fights. Going up against a guy without a real one-hitter quitter in his arsenal in Jared Vanderaa, the ageless wonder can keep this miraculous run intact by doing exactly what he has done lately.

Size is Vanderaa’s greatest asset, as his nickname of “The Mountain” rings true to what he brings to the table. Possessing the ability to utilize his body weight to bowl over opponents and crush them to the mat, he is far better suited should he maintain top control. His range advantage will also help put hands on Arlovski, even if “The Pit Bull” prefers to stay at a wide kickboxing berth to stab with jabs and effectively control the distance. Arlovski can still get hurt with strikes, although his recoverability has markedly improved despite his getting up in age, and it will be up to Vanderaa to try to finish the job should he sting the former champion with a combination. Couple this line with “Fight Goes to Decision” with your preferred victor, but Arlovski in his current form appears to have the edge to get his hand raised for the third time in a row.