Prime Picks: PFL Champions Series 1 ‘Road to Dubai’

With no Ultimate Fighting Championship to rule the airwaves, the Professional Fighters League takes the plurality of mixed martial attention with its first show of the year on Saturday at Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Keeping the Bellator MMA belt alive, a few matchups with familiar faces play out amidst a sea of developing talent. Join the PFL Champions Series 1 “Road to Dubai” edition of Prime Picks as we cautiously sail through the seas of jagged betting lines, where six of the 10 pro pairings show favorites with odds above -500.

Paul Hughes (+475)

Sportsbooks are not giving prospective bettors much to work with for this card from the artist formerly known as Bellator. Of the 10 available overall lines, while each one has its standard prop for over/under, each option on the main card is too far in one direction. When Hughes-Usman Nurmagomedov going beyond 1.5 rounds is -900, and over 2.5 rounds is -450, there is just no wiggle room. Even the line of it going the distance at -250 is too great of an ask for Prime Picks faithful. Therefore, we focus on plus money for ways to pitch suitable fliers. It might not be as sexy as a straight moneyline or throwing a dart to hit a specific type of finish, but those options are simply not offered for this event.

Leave it to the Irishman Hughes to bring Nurmagomedov’s favored status back down to Earth. Against Brent Primus, Nurmagomedov clocked in with a -3300 line and ended up testing positive for a substance we still know nothing about. When taking on Benson Henderson, the minus territory was about as disrespectful to the former UFC champ, as Nurmagomedov came in at -2500. With the momentum behind Hughes and, most importantly, what he displayed against A.J. McKee, there is some hope that he can be the next Irish star and a man capable of dethroning the unbeaten Nurmagomedov. The takedown defense flowed for “Big News,” as he let McKee overextend his way into a shot so he could force a scramble and take an advantageous position. Even though Nurmagomedov is a more singularly focused wrestler than McKee, advertising the price of admission—to quote the great Laura Sanko—will work to the Hughes’ advantage, as long as one of his flying knees does not get him dragged to the floor. It is not a full-throated endorsement, as none of these wide underdog plays are outright picks akin to a moneyline. Instead, we provide recommendations that, given the disparity of the betting line, leave some value for the underdog. For instance, the implied win percentage of a -700 favorite like Nurmagomedov is 87.5%, but Hughes should have a better chance than that.

Tim Johnson (+1000)

North Dakota’s Johnson has a chance to do the funniest thing. There was plenty of bluster about Vadim Nemkov’s final opponent under his current contract with the organization, especially after vacating his light heavyweight throne to move up to heavyweight. A one-sided chokeout of Bruno Cappelozza in his return to the highest weight division was hardly unforeseen and could be just the kind of thing he does to just as easily to a massive underdog in Johnson. Historically, the mustached marvel out of Xtreme Couture has displayed superior submission defense when compared to Cappelozza, but a lot of the outing will hinge on whether Nemkov is able to ground Johnson and keep him there.

In recent memory, others have pulled off the quick ground-to-pound strategy to take Johnson’s brawler ways out of the equation, with Denis Goltsov getting him out of there in under half a round. Valentin Moldavsky also sucked the wind out of his sails by taking him to the mat and nullifying his skills, while Johnson made mistakes on the floor when trying to dispatch Linton Vassell, only to get drummed out himself. A sprawl-and-brawl approach will work wonders for Johnson if he keeps his back away from the cage—this is where he tends to get trapped, with someone shooting in on his hips as he stands straight up while parallel to the fence. Given Nemkov’s many avenues to victory, it might sound counterproductive to pitch Johnson notching what would likely stand up as the biggest betting upset of the year. However, these are heavyweights, and Johnson does possess one-hitter-quitter power. A puncher’s chance for a fighter who prefers to punch is not fluke territory. If the under was a bit more reasonable—it is currently at -250 for concluding prior to one and a half rounds—we would pitch that instead, but it is what it is.

Nathan Kelly (+210)

Of the three plays we are putting out for this post-Bellator fight card, this one is the most likely to happen according bettors. Historically, those from the Dagestan region have prevailed more frequently than Irishmen and women in this new rivalry PFL is pushing—the event is subtitled “Dagestan vs. Ireland 2”—but all good things must come to an end. Much like the main event, this pairing between Kelly and Akhmed Magomedov can be framed through career trajectories. Kelly dropped his first two fights, learned his lessons and has had his hand raised ever since. On the other hand, when Magomedov reached a tough test in the ultra-durable Henry Corrales, he could not get over the hump and implement his own game. When pushing forward, Magomedov can steamroll, but when forced to fight off the back foot, he’s not nearly as dominant. This gives Kelly, an active, aggressive competitor, a real pathway to shine.

To be clear, like the first two lines, it’s a matter of finding the value in the pick rather than simply picking who prognosticators expect will prevail. There’s no moral victory in picking an underdog who could have/should have won. However, there’s money to be made when watching how lines shift and progress and comparing them to the real-life successes and failures of the combatants. For this situation, it’s a tough sell to some for Magomedov to come in above -250 despite being away for nearly two years and coming off a loss. The Dagestani prospect is still young, and 23 months is a long time to learn new tricks. However, since Magomedov last set foot in the cage, Kelly has competed on five occasions, winning four by stoppage. It could end quickly and violently—Kelly has a penchant for such things—or it could last all 15 minutes. Either way, Kelly pressing the action, forcing scrambles when fighting off takedowns and doing damage along the way gives him a path to victory that seems clearer and more likely than the +210 tag suggests.