Opinion: Israel Adesanya at a Crossroads

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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Few Ultimate Fighting Championship titleholders have reigned over their divisions with the excitement and skill of Israel Adesanya, but as “The Last Stylebender” descends further into the post-prime phase of his career, the 35-year-old needs to ensure that his eventual swan song strikes the right notes. For the first time in his career, Adesanya heads into a fight on the heels of two straight defeats. He’s 1-3 in his last four appearances, and after upset losses to Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis, fans are left to wonder just how far the former pound-for-pound mainstay has fallen.

Those questions will be answered when Adesanya battles fifth-ranked middleweight contender Nassourdine Imavov in the UFC Fight Night 250 headliner on Saturday at anb Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This fight is of utmost importance to Adesanya. While an impressive win puts the City Kickboxing standout back in the title conversation, a loss will force reasonable talks about retirement. With an MMA record of 24-4 and 75 kickboxing wins on his ledger, Adesanya has accumulated many, many miles on the odometer, and there are few fights in front of him worthy of the mental strain and physical journey.

When Adesanya knocked out Robert Whitaker in the second round of their 2019 title fight, he cemented himself as the gold standard for middleweight mixed martial artists. His striking was levels above anyone in the title picture and could only be compared to a prime Anderson Silva. Five title defenses later, and you could make an argument for Adesanya being the Greatest of All-Time. However, in the midst of his dominance, Adesanya’s reign lacked a key ingredient with which only the most legendary fight careers are blessed: a formidable foil. Adesanya’s fights looked too easy, so casual fans failed to see the brilliance in his five-round master classes. It wasn’t until Adesanya’s two-fight series with kickboxing rival Alex Pereira that his star power truly entered the stratosphere.

Adesanya’s back-and-forth loss at UFC 281 reminded fans of the proud warrior who was ready to die in a 2019 epic against Kevin Gastelum, while his emphatic come-from-behind knockout of Pereira to reclaim his belt at UFC 287 was one of the most shocking moments in the promotion’s history. In hindsight, Adesanya likely should’ve retired at that moment. Shooting imaginary arrows through Pereira’s limp body was the peak of his career, and it has only been downhill from there.

From a drunk driving charge to losing his championship to Strickland a couple weeks later, Adesanya has seemed somewhat checked out of his MMA career. He has been the top dog for so long that every UFC middleweight has studied his style with obsession. He’s still a slick counterpunching threat, but years of fights and punishment have taken their toll. Strickland proved that he can be touched with traditional boxing techniques, while Du Plessis simply wanted it more when they entered the championship rounds of their 2024 title clash.

Imavov is the type of fighter Adesanya would have likely toyed with a few years ago, but the French sniper could have the former champion in his sights at the right time. He rides the momentum of a three-fight winning streak and, at 29, could become a young, fresh title contender the middleweight division needs. Adesanya enters this fight with questions to answer. While his last two bouts were below his usual standard, he is far from washed. Yet with all he has accomplished in his career, is he actually interested in being a gatekeeper? In my opinion, Adesanya likely has two or three great fights left in him, and he should make them count before hanging up his gloves.

Beating Imavov is priority No. 1. If Adesanya falls to the Frenchman, then the swan song has already begun. With three straight losses, Adesanya should shift his priority to closing his career out with a win and riding off into the sunset on the heels of a fun but winnable fight—perhaps a third encounter with Whitaker or even a showdown with friend and former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. However, a victory over Imavov would present him with several interesting options. Adesanya already showed he can shine in a rematch, so why not pit him against the loser of the forthcoming UFC 312 showdown between Strickland and Du Plessis? The winner of that fight has a date with destiny and Khamzat Chimaev, and it’s way too soon to put Adesanya in an immediate title bout.

With Du Plessis and Strickland facing one another on Feb. 8, matching the loser against Adesanya sometime over the summer makes logical sense. Adesanya has heated rivalries with both men, and a rematch with either one could produce interesting results. Both fights would be lucrative, and if Adesanya losses, he can leave the sport with a major payday. If Adesanya were to avenge his defeat and put together a two-fight winning streak, that would set up his perfect scenario where he could win the middleweight championship for a third time.

While 35 isn’t ancient for an MMA fighter, there’s no reason why someone the caliber of Adesanya should compete unless it leads to a title shot. Watching Silva perform years past his prime and lose seven of his last eight bouts was heartbreaking, and Adesanya should avoid that fate at all costs. If he defeats Imavov, the wheels will turn forward toward a title shot, but a loss will slam the breaks on Adesanya’s hopes of reclimbing the pound-for-pound ladder.