Preview: UFC Vegas 101 Prelims

Women’s Flyweights

Ernesta Kareckaite (5-1-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Nicolle Caliari (8-2, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Kareckaite (-298), Caliari (+240)

Two recent Contender Series alumni look for their first UFC win in this pairing. As a 5-foot-9 flyweight, Lithuania’s Kareckaite is certainly a prospect who stands out, even if it’s a bit unclear how ready she is for the big time. Kareckaite’s nickname of “Heavy-Handed” is a bit ironic given that she’s far from a power hitter, but she otherwise checks a lot of boxes as someone willing to lean on her physicality and durability to outwork her opponents, even if her victories have rarely been clean. Her Contender Series win over fellow raw prospect Carli Judice was an entertaining scrap that could have gone either way, while her UFC debut was a case of her positively answering some questions even in a clear loss, surviving for three rounds and doing some solid work late against Dione Barbosa—a tough grappler who was clearly Kareckaite’s toughest opponent to date. Kareckaite makes her sophomore outing here against another Brazilian in Caliari, who herself has a resume that’s a bit hard to calibrate. Caliari had a spotty record prior to 2023, with her only notable fights coming in clear losses, before picking things up and earning her way to the Contender Series in September. Caliari earned a contract with a first-round submission, but even that was a mixed bag. It was a messy fight where Caliari seemed to tire in the face of some resistance before landing the fight-ending armbar. Caliari’s the most potent finisher Kareckaite has faced, so this could just be easy work for the UFC newcomer. However, it’s unclear how things will unfold if the Lithuanian can survive the early going, both in terms of Caliari’s gas tank and each woman's depth of skill. It seems worth the flier that Kareckaite can grind out a win. The pick is Kareckaite via decision.

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