Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Mir vs. Duffee’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Kevin Lee (10-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. James Moontasri (8-2, 1-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Two up-and-coming lightweights clash in a well-booked fight. Lee, a Michigan native, has won three in a row since losing his UFC debut to Al Iaquinta, most recently taking a decision from Michel Richard Cunha dos Prazeres in February. Moontasri has split his two outings, dropping a contentious decision to Joe Ellenberger in the first and destroying Cody Pfister in the second.

Lee is big, athletic and well-rounded, but he is still figuring out how to put things together. His striking is serviceable but fairly rote, featuring an excellent jab, a crisp straight right and solid round kicks. He works at a quick pace but is not terribly powerful, nor does he have much of a feel for exploiting his opponent’s tendencies. Lee is a plus wrestler for the weight class -- a Division II national qualifier with strong takedown defense, an excellent double-leg and nice chains; on the floor, he mostly controls from the top and looks to land strikes. Lee shows good instincts in the scrambles, though, and a good eye for when to lock up chokes.

Moontasri is an aggressive and unorthodox striker. Spinning back kicks, flying knees and looping punches are the order of the day, and he is not as aware of the subtleties of spacing or pacing as he probably should be against better competition. Still, there is some craft to his game, and he excels at using stepping knees and knees from the double-collar tie to counter takedown attempts. Plus, he possesses beautiful timing. In order to make that wild striking game function, Moontasri needs excellent takedown defense. He is difficult to get to the ground, particularly when he can base out against the cage, and is confident enough in his defensive wrestling game that he not only defends but also throws short punches and elbows while warding off takedowns. He is not a serious submission threat on the canvas, nor does he really look for takedowns, but he is adept at grabbing a hurt opponent’s back and sinking the choke.

BETTING ODDS: Lee (-260), Moontasri (+180)

THE PICK: If Moontasri can stay disciplined and keep this fight at range, he could pick apart Lee from the outside with kicks, punches and knees. That is not really Moontasri’s game, however, and it seems more likely that he will try to engage in a quick-paced brawl. In that scenario, it will be difficult for him to keep Lee off his hips, and he will eat more than a few punches in between takedown attempts. The pick is Lee by decision.

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