Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Mir vs. Duffee’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Alan Jouban (11-3, 2-1 UFC) vs. Matt Dwyer (8-2, 1-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: A welterweight action fight kicks off the main card, as Jouban takes on Canada’s Dwyer. Jouban knocked out Richard Walsh in February and prior to that dropped a controversial decision to “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” winner Warlley Alves. Dwyer was knocked out by Albert Tumenov in his debut in October and then finished William Macario in his second outing in February. This has all the makings of a barnburner between two of the division’s up-and-coming practitioners of violence.

Dwyer is huge for the division at 6-foot-4 and has made better use of his reach in his last several outings by more liberally utilizing front and round kicks to maintain his distance. He has more pop in his hands than you might expect and in the past has been perfectly happy to wing hooks in the pocket and launch knees and elbows in the clinch; however, he is intensely hittable and defense is nothing more than an afterthought. We know little about the rest of his game, though he appears to be a serviceable defensive wrestler.

Jouban is an aggressive southpaw who loves a dirty, bloody brawl. His left round kick is his bread and butter, and he packs real power in his legs and both hands. He is comfortable exchanging in the pocket but is not the craftiest counterpuncher you will ever see, and he tends to rely on his toughness more than any elite defensive skills. Jouban backs up that striking arsenal with an outstanding clinch game that consists of sharp knees and vicious, sneaky elbows that he excels at sneaking in on entries and exits from close range. Defensive wrestling is not Jouban’s strongest suit, but he is serviceable and making progress from fight to fight. On his back, he prefers the rubber guard and is aggressive if not particularly dangerous.

BETTING ODDS: Jouban (-405), Dwyer (+285)

THE PICK: Jouban’s love of brawling makes every matchup more dangerous than it needs to be, and Dwyer is the kind of opponent who could give the American fits in the clinch and at kicking distance if he is not careful. Still, the more likely scenario involves Jouban planting heavy leather on the hittable Dwyer at some point. The pick is Jouban by knockout in the first round.

Last Fights » The Prelims