Preview: UFC 316 Prelims

Lightweights
MarQuel Mederos (10-1) vs. Mark Choinski (8-0)
Odds: Mederos (-218), Choinski (+180)

A late scratch from a fight last week due to illness, Mederos gets a quick rebooking here. That's nice to see, since Mederos is an interesting prospect that needs to make up for lost time; after earning a contract on the Contender Series in 2023, Mederos made his UFC debut early in 2024 then didn't return until over a year later. Mederos is working on a style that could pay off a ton when he works out the kinks, as he fights with a herky-jerky striking style while applying constant pressure in the hopes that he can catch his opponents off-guard. It's been a successful approach, but there's clearly still some gains to be made; Mederos rarely finds a perfect knockout shot, and the sheer energy expenditure from his constant movement can leave him lagging by the end of his fights. But again, these are all issues that will hopefully get ironed out with experience, so it's good to see him back in action against newcomer Choinski. Wisconsin's Choinski was only starting to get some actual tests as a regional prospect, but he looks like a solid enough addition compared to some other late-notice signees; "The Shark" has a wrestling background to lean on while he rounds out the rest of his game, which at the moment is fairly slow-paced and steady. Choinski does appear to be a UFC-level athlete and wrestling has been an effective way to slow Mederos down in the past, so there's a chance the UFC newcomer can find a path to victory, but it seems likelier that Mederos can put together enough volume to win this even without factoring in any questions about Choinski's untested durability. The pick is Mederos via decision.

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