Preview: UFC 257 ‘Poirier vs. McGregor 2’

Women’s Strawweights

No. 10 | Amanda Ribas (10-1, 4-0 UFC) vs. No. 8 | Marina Rodriguez (12-1-2, 2-1-2 UFC)

ODDS: Ribas (-300), Rodriguez (+250)

There is some hope that Ribas can be one of the breakout stars of 2021, and given how things have gone thus far, it is hard to bet against her. Ribas did not particularly stick out as a prospect heading into the UFC. Her record was fairly standard fare for a female Brazilian prospect, and a quick loss to Polyana Viana was a cause for concern; and for a while, there was a question involving whether or not Ribas would even make her UFC debut. Ribas was signed in 2017, but her planned debut was scrapped due to drug test issues that were later tied to a tainted supplement. That meant Ribas would have to wait two years for her first UFC fight, at which point she was an absolute revelation, as she ran through Emily Whitmire with surprising ease and showed a ton of personality in her post-fight interview. Since then, Ribas has done nothing but impress. She seemed to be the clear B-side in a subsequent fight against Mackenzie Dern but instead turned the fight into a showcase for herself in a one-sided divisional win. Her next win over Randa Markos was another clear proving point. Markos might be inconsistent as a fighter, but Ribas’ ability to distance herself as the stronger wrestler did a much to prove that her success is due to her own positives rather than her opponent’s flaws. After what was essentially a promotional showcase against Paige VanZant, Ribas is ready to get back on track towards becoming a strawweight contender, with the personality and promotional favor to do something more. However, she has another tough test here in Rodriguez.

Rodriguez has also affirmed herself as a prospect to watch, albeit in a much quieter fashion than Ribas. Her UFC debut—a draw against Markos—gives a solid outline of Rodriguez’s strengths and weaknesses. She was mostly helpless when Markos got her wrestling fully on track, but on the feet, she is a practiced and quite vicious muay Thai artist. Even though she is a late bloomer—her pro debut came at age 27—Rodriguez has done well to try and shore up her weaknesses. Just two appearances after the Markos bout, Rodriguez managed to stifle Tecia Torres and turn things into a striking match to earn her signature win. The UFC has not exactly done Rodriguez any favors with its matchmaking since, pitting her against two more talented grapplers in Cynthia Calvillo and Carla Esparza. Rodriguez held her own in both fights—they resulted in a draw and a split decision loss that each could have gone Rodriguez’s way—and seems poised for a breakout run with a bit more experience.

Ribas’ knockout loss to Viana is always going to loom somewhat large, but this looks like a bout where she is set up well to succeed. Again, Rodriguez’s clear weakness is her ability to fight off better wrestlers, and while she has done well to work on those parts of her game, Ribas still feels like too strong of a challenge to overcome. At this point, Ribas has proven she can bull around some physically strong opposition without much trouble. Add in that she seems to take an intelligent approach and also has a potent submission game to end the fight, and she should spend the entire bout working towards the finish. The pick is Ribas via second-round submission.

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