Preview: UFC 257 ‘Poirier vs. McGregor 2’

Lightweights

NR | Arman Tsarukyan (15-2, 2-1 UFC) vs. NR | Nasrat Haqparast (12-3, 4-2 UFC)

ODDS: Tsarukyan (-270), Haqparast (+230)

It is a bit surprising that the UFC put this fight together given that it could derail one of these two elite prospects, but it is also hard to complain about such an interesting matchup. Haqparast enjoyed an impressive UFC debut in 2017, even though it came in a loss. The German Kelvin Gastelum doppelganger stepped in on late notice to take on veteran grappler Marcin Held and acquitted himself quite well in the process. Even with the impressive performance, it seemed like the UFC was doing him dirty by matching him against Marc Diakiese in his next bout, but Haqparast instead came through with a breakout win on the back of his quick and aggressive striking. That is the core of Haqparast’s game, as he looks to shock his opponents early before building his volume and hoping to overwhelm them late. He does not have much concern for what comes back at him, which walked him right into a quick knockout against Drew Dober to kick off 2020, but Haqparast rebounded well against Alex Munoz in August and looks to further cash in on his potential against Tsarukyan. A Russian of Armenian heritage, Tsarukyan also had a tough task in his UFC debut, getting thrown into a co-main event against Islam Makhachev in April 2019. Even so, Tsarukyan held his own there and followed things up with an impressive win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier a few months later. Tsarukyan was obviously a prospect with some potential then, but it came with a familiar caveat for a lot of Russian wrestlers. He had enough aggression and strength to lock down a fight but needed to find some further comfort on the feet, lest he risk a knockout loss to a quick puncher like Haqparast. That improvement happened much quicker than anyone expected, as Tsarukyan flashed a much more competent and defensively minded boxing game in a breakout performance against Davi Ramos in July. It was the type of performance that immediately made Tsarukyan one of the top prospects in the UFC. It has also likely changed the pick for this fight. The 2019 version of Tsarukyan would likely get blasted by Haqparast sooner rather than later, but the form he showed in the Ramos fight suggests he can stay patient early and eventually pick his spots to take over the fight with his wrestling. Haqparast’s speed may cause some issues in the first few minutes of the fight and a knockout is always on the table, but Tsarukyan should eventually take over and get the decision victory.

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Middleweights

No. 14 | Brad Tavares (17-6, 12-6 UFC) vs. NR | Antonio Carlos Jr. (10-4, 7-4 UFC)

ODDS: Tavares (-135), Carlos (+115)

This is a surprisingly crucial fight for these two middleweight veterans, given that each man is looking to come back from a long layoff and score his first win in nearly three years. For years, the scouting report seemed to be pretty clear on Tavares. The Hawaiian was a consistently successful kickboxer, mostly on the back of his ability to nullify his opponents. Tavares’ game was absent any sort of finishing ability, but he could usually keep fights standing—save against Yoel Romero—and slow down the pace to the point where he could coast to a win. After years of chugging along, Tavares seemed to finally turn a corner in a 2018 win against Krzysztof Jotko, as he scored his first knockout victory since a 2011 win over Phil Baroni. However, it did not really lead anywhere. He was flummoxed by Israel Adesanya in one of the current middleweight champion’s breakout performances, then got shockingly run over by surging prospect Edmen Shahbazyan. Now, over a year later, Tavares looks to rebound against Carlos. In contrast to Tavares’ quiet climb on the ladder, hopes were high for Carlos after his successful run through Season 3 of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil.” However, while Carlos’ grappling background has made him look like a monster in some impressive wins, “Cara de Sapato” has never quite turned the corner into a championship contender. A 2016 loss to Daniel Kelly raised some concern about the Brazilian’s ability to outlast opponents who were willing to stick around. It reared its head once again in a 2019 loss to Ian Heinisch, as Carlos got knocked off track and never recovered. His last fight was a loss to Uriah Hall that was thankfully much narrower, but it is a bit of a worry that Carlos could not control the fight enough to make up for Hall’s moments of success on the feet. There is a similar concern here, as outwrestling Tavares has never been much of a path to victory against the Hawaiian. Most of Tavares’ losses have seen him simply get outgunned by more athletic or more powerful strikers. At the same time, Tavares’ recent form does not suggest a level of effectiveness to fully overcome the aggression and attempts at control that Carlos usually brings to a fight. This feels like an ugly split decision type of fight where Carlos presses the action but does not get much done. In the end, this is simply about the man who figures to do more. The pick is Carlos via decision.

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Women’s Bantamweights

No. 9 | Sara McMann (12-5, 6-5 UFC) vs. No. 7 | Julianna Pena (9-4, 5-2 UFC)

ODDS: McMann (-130), Pena (+110)

When McMann landed her title shot against Ronda Rousey in 2014, it seemed to be more for what she had done outside the cage than anything in her mixed martial arts career to date. Her lone UFC bout was a quick win over Shiela Gaff, but the main intrigue came from the idea that McMann, a 2004 Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling, could use that wrestling to stifle Rousey’s vaunted submission game. In practice, the fight never even got that far—Rousey ended it on the feet in just 66 seconds—and the years since have seen McMann provide just as much frustration as flashes of potential. McMann’s wrestling just never really provided much control or put a stamp on a fight until a three-fight winning streak across 2016-2017, as she seemed to finally turn a corner and even scored some submissions in the process. However, that refocused approach only gave way to some disheartening losses, as McMann had fights against Ketlen Vieira and Marion Reneau well in hand before suddenly giving up fight-ending submissions. McMann rebounded well with a win over Lina Lansberg to kick off 2020, and while it is still difficult to have much faith in her, that wrestling base and the lack of depth at women’s bantamweight will prevent her from falling too far down the ladder, even as she enters her 40s. As for Pena, it has been a strange and rocky road to the fringes of title contention. She looked like a prospect who could rocket quickly up the ladder after an impressive run through “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2013, but a major knee injury immediately derailed things and kept her out of action for over a year. After that, “The Venezuelan Vixen” almost succeeded despite herself. Her aggressive wrestling game was not particularly technical or pretty, but her willingness to continually run after her opponents and take any opening possible kept racking up wins until Valentina Shevchenko caught her in an armbar in 2017. After that came another long layoff, this one for much better reasons, as Pena got pregnant and decided to take a break to raise her child. In her two fights since, Pena has been a much different fighter, for better or for worse. She is obviously trying to become a more patient and well-rounded fighter, but that has come at the expense of being a physical force who can control her fights. Pena’s inactivity also means that she is not getting much time to hone that approach, and it made her October loss to Germaine de Randamie particularly damaging, especially given that she somehow charged right into a guillotine choke from a typically one-dimensional striker. A few years ago, there would have been more of a question about who would initiate the wrestling exchanges where each of these women are most comfortable, but given recent form, it looks like that will be McMann. The only question from there is how effectively McMann can keep Pena on the bottom, between Pena’s typically aggressive approach on the mat and McMann’s willingness to give up some advantageous positions in the past. Pena has not been much of a submission threat in the UFC, so the call is that McMann can at least do enough to dictate most of this fight, even if there is always the suspense of how she can turn a win into a loss. Through gritted teeth, the pick is McMann via decision.

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Light Heavyweights

Khalil Rountree (8-4, 4-4 UFC) vs. Marcin Prachnio (13-5, 0-3 UFC)

ODDS: Rountree (-330), Prachnio (+270)

Rountree may not have entirely panned out as a prospect, but he still brings plenty of excitement and violence when he steps into the cage. Rountree was a consensus top prospect heading into Season 23 of “The Ultimate Fighter” and one of the favorites to walk out the winner, thanks to a thudding striking game that could fold his opponents. Rountree still showed that ability over the course of the season, but losses to Cory Hendricks and Andrew Sanchez demonstrated some deficiencies in his wrestling and grappling defense; and frankly, while Rountree has obviously tried a bunch of different things to find a more effective approach, the ensuing few years have done more to expose his weaknesses than build any sort of momentum. Wrestling remains a concern, and a loss—it was later overturned to a no-contest—against Michal Oleksiejczuk showed Rountree has a limited gas tank, even when he can tee off on an opponent who simply does not go away. His 2019 win over Eryk Anders looked like a bit of a breakthrough, but a subsequent defeat to Ion Cutelaba suggests that Rountree was just helped by Anders being comfortable at a slower pace. For all his flaws, watching Rountree go to town on an overmatched opponent is an absolute delight, and the “War Horse” should be able to overwhelm Prachnio. Poland’s Prachnio comes from a karate background and has been on the losing end of quick wars in each of his three UFC bouts to date. His UFC debut against Sam Alvey was a cautionary tale about the dangers of unchecked aggression, as Prachnio charged directly into a knockout punch. However, even as Prachnio has attempted a slightly more patient approach, his lack of defense has gotten him blasted by a hard counter every time out. Rountree might hit the hardest of any of Prachnio’s opponents to date, so there is no reason for this to go any differently. The pick is Rountree via first-round knockout.

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Middleweights

NR | Makhmud Muradov (24-6, 2-0 UFC) vs. NR | Andrew Sanchez (12-5, 5-3 UFC)

ODDS: Muradov (-140), Sanchez (+120)

When Sanchez won Season 23 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” he looked like a prospect who could make a quick impact. He showed off some knockout power to supplement a strong grappling game and beat two of the most highly regard prospects in the sport—Phil Hawes and Khalil Rountree—during his time on the show. However, a third-round loss to Anthony Smith soon raised some concerns about Sanchez’s cardio, and a subsequent setback against Ryan Janes in much the same manner confirmed that Sanchez’s gas tank was a major liability. Since then, Sanchez’s career has been an exercise in flashes and frustration. A decision win over Markus Perez showed some consistency, but a subsequent victory over Marc-Andre Barriault and a loss to Marvin Vettori showed much the same issues that plagued Sanchez in prior fights. On the plus side, Sanchez is coming off a scintillating first-round knockout of Wellington Turman, but it remains to be seen if he finally a turned corner or if this is another reason for false hope. He will take on Uzbekistan’s Muradov, who has had multiple fights fall through since his 2019 win over Trevor Smith. Muradov is a dedicated range striker, bouncing around at a distance and looking to snipe his opponents. If he cannot connect cleanly, it can make for some disappointing fights, but it also makes for the occasional beautiful finish, as was the case with his blasting of Smith. The danger for Muradov is that he is not as defensively slick as he thinks, so Sanchez could wind up catching him clean as he divebombs into striking range. Otherwise, Muradov has the edge simply because he has shown the ability to make his game work for 15 minutes. The pick is Muradov via decision.

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Featherweights

NR | Movsar Evloev (13-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. NR | Nik Lentz (30-11-2, 14-8-1 UFC)

ODDS: Evloev (-440), Lentz (+350)

It is amazing in a way that Lentz has made it this far while staying on the UFC roster. After his win on the UFC 118 televised prelims was so boring that some blamed it for hurting the event’s buy rate, it seemed like Lentz was a shoo-in to be cut with his next loss, but “The Carnie” has since carved out a niche as a tough veteran grinder. Lentz has chugged along in the decade-plus since, winning a bit more than he has lost and fighting Charles Oliveira every few years for some reason; and in recent years, he has seemingly made a conscious effort to add muscle and power at the expense of his cardio in order to become a bit more of a finisher. That made it a surprise when he suddenly decided to drop back down to featherweight to kick off 2020, when his fight against Arnold Allen went about as expected. Lentz was game early but increasingly faded as the fight went on and lost a decision. That Allen bout was thrown together after Lentz’s initial opponent pulled out, and he again gets a tougher opponent on short-notice here, as Mike Grundy has been replaced by Movsar Evloev. Remember, Evloev beat Grundy in his last fight. Evloev is one of the more underrated prospects on the UFC roster, mostly thanks to inactivity. The Russian has usually been able to take care of opponents with an aggressive mindset that is focused on taking them to the mat. The margins have been a bit thinner at the UFC level—he has not quite been able to lock down opponents—and there is an increasing sense that he is set to charge directly into a prospect loss at some point. However, Lentz does not present any sort of danger, particularly once he becomes exhausted by the second or third round. The pick is Evloev via clear decision.

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Flyweights

NR | Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-4, 0-1 UFC) vs. No. 15 | Amir Albazi (13-1, 1-0 UFC)

ODDS: Zhumagulov (-120), Albazi (+100)

This is an interesting match that should help the winner gain a foothold at 125 pounds. Albazi has an intriguing set of skills but could go any number of ways going forward. He is a powerful athlete with some reliable grappling and thump on the feet, but his lone real test prior to the UFC was a bit worrying. Jose Torres was by far the biggest threat Albazi has faced to date, which quickly threw “The Prince” off his game plan and forced him into a defensive if intelligent fight. Albazi ran over Malcolm Gordon in his UFC debut in July, and his ceiling is a bit unclear from here. He is still just 27 years old but has quietly been a professional fighter for over a decade. He will take on Kazakhstan’s Zhumagulov, who is looking to rebound from a narrow loss to Raulian Paiva in his UFC debut. Zhumagulov came to the UFC after a reign as Fight Nights Global flyweight champion, and he certainly has a style built for title fights, starting off slow but building his offense well with each consecutive round. That held true in the Paiva fight. Zhumagulov had things well in hand by the third round but could not overcome a rough start on the scorecards. The key here is how quickly Zhumagulov can get rolling and make Albazi uncomfortable, which may take a while. Zhumagulov is not much of a power puncher, and his lack of defensive wrestling could give Albazi a failsafe to keep control and mentally stay in the fight. Zhumagulov should eventually still find his way to a strong third round once again, but the pick is Albazi via decision.