Preview: UFC on Fox 21 ‘Maia vs. Condit’

Lightweights

Jim Miller (26-8) vs. Joe Lauzon (26-11)

THE MATCHUP: The first time these two men fought, Miller showed a difference in class between his and Lauzon’s striking. That was in 2012, however, and both men have changed a bit in the four years since. Lauzon has fallen short against three of the lightweight division’s best, but he has also stopped three others, slicing up Michael Chiesa and finally handing the notoriously durable Diego Sanchez a knockout loss. Miller has lost five times, and though he has secured four wins to retain his place among the lightweight elite, he has looked decidedly unimpressive in matchups that might once have favored him.

With that said, Miller may just be an inherently difficult stylistic matchup for Lauzon. Even faded, he is still a southpaw with a reliably rugged kickboxing attack. Since 2012, all but one of Lauzon’s losses has come to lefties, including the switch-hitting Anthony Pettis; and of the left-handers he has beaten in that time, one was primed for a long-overdue KO (Sanchez) and the other was on his way to taking over the fight when he was stopped by cuts (Chiesa). Miller is a solid clinch fighter, his sharp elbows being the most effective weapon against “J-Lau” last time, but he is also an effective Thai-style striker from long range, leaning on his powerful kicks and stiff straight punches.

Lauzon’s best path to victory is to overwhelm Miller in the early minutes, just as he did to Sanchez. He is a powerful puncher in his own right and knows how to string together his shots against a stationary target. That strategy would be a gambit, however, as Lauzon has historically faltered in the later rounds. Sixteen of Lauzon’s finishes have occurred in the first round, four in the second and four in the third --three of those before 2005. In 37 fights, Lauzon has won only one decision, over a shopworn Mac Danzig. If he burns himself out trying to finish Miller and fails, he will give Miller the chance to pick him apart from range. That is contingent upon Miller’s own stamina holding up. That is less certain that it once would have been.

Though the striking exchanges were electrifying last time, this fight would be half as interesting were it not for the prospect of a ground battle. Miller is by far the better wrestler of the two, so if this fight goes to the ground it will likely be his doing, and he will likely end up on top. Lauzon is a fantastic transitional fighter on the floor and extremely aggressive, constantly adjusting from the bottom and looking to attack or sweep. Miller’s jiu-jitsu is fundamentally sound, however. He is better poised than most to control Lauzon from top position, and his rubbery high guard should allow him to neutralize Lauzon from the top just as he did in their first encounter. Lauzon’s transitions are dangerous, but when he is locked down in one position, he is far less effective.

THE ODDS: Lauzon (-140), Miller (+120)

THE PICK: Lauzon is always dangerous. If he is still as dangerous as he looked in his last outing, then he could reverse the fortunes of UFC 155 here. In the last four years, Miller has lost more decisively than Lauzon and won less impressively. Beating Lauzon was probably the best performance of Jim Miller’s career, however, in part because Lauzon’s all-or-nothing style and rudimentary anti-southpaw tactics allowed him to shine. Both men have declined somewhat since, but the style matchup has not changed. The pick is Miller by unanimous decision.

Last Fights » The Prelims