Preview: UFC 286 ‘Edwards vs. Usman 3’

Women’s Flyweights

#12 WFLW | Casey O’Neill (9-0, 4-0 UFC) vs. #8 WFLW | Jennifer Maia (20-9-1, 5-5 UFC)

ODDS: O’Neill (-165), Maia (+140)

Recent cards have served as a reminder that the women’s flyweight division has a ton of young and upcoming talent, and O’Neill returns to add herself to the mix. Representing both Scotland and Australia, O’Neill was a fighter who was intriguing but unproven during her brief regional career. “King” showed a lot of the right ideas while implementing some unshakeable aggression, but like many fighters, she faced questions about how well her athleticism would translate against better competition. O’Neill still has not faced the level of standout athlete that would put a lot of those questions to rest, but she has impressed greatly in her four UFC fights to date. Her first three wins mostly centered on her wrestling and ability to turn a small advantage into something greater, but her last victory over Roxanne Modafferi showed an impressive ability to pivot to a range striking game and cleanly take a decision from the longtime veteran. Still just 25 years old, it is a promising sign that O’Neill should continue to develop in leaps and bounds, though it will be interesting to see how she fares here. She is returning from over a year off thanks to a major knee injury to take on her stoutest test yet in Maia.

Maia has settled into a niche as a gatekeeper to the flyweight elite, but she has also continued to improve her game over the years. Still somehow just 34 years old after a long career, the Brazilian should be relevant as a solid veteran for years to come. Maia made her way up the ranks with an unspectacular but consistent game, throwing powerful strikes with the goal of marching her opponents into her clinch. She picked a good moment to break out her grappling chops with a submission win over Joanne Wood in 2020, which in turn earned her a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko a few months later. While it was clearly a decision win for the then-champion, Maia was the first opponent to make Shevchenko look mortal at 125 pounds, owing to the physical strength she can bring to the table when locking horns with any opponent. A rough 2022 probably closed the door on any hopes for Maia to march her way back to a title shot, as Katlyn Chookagian and Manon Fiorot each took tough but clear decision wins against her, but a November victory over Maryna Moroz was a nice reminder that the Brazilian is still capable of shutting down a vast swath of her competition. If O’Neill can build off the performance that she put together against Modafferi, she has a solid chance at a win, but there are still enough questions about her to give Maia the small lean. O’Neill is willing to eat her opponent’s offense in the name of implementing her own and also tired down the stretch against Modafferi, both of which could allow Maia to have some big moments on the feet, beyond the questions about the prospect’s ability to bully the former Invicta Fighting Championships titleholder in the clinch. O'Neill is still a top talent to watch, but the call is that this is where she takes her prospect loss. The pick is Maia via decision.

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Edwards vs. Usman
Fiziev vs. Gaethje
Nelson vs. Barberena
O’Neill vs. Maia
Vettori vs. Dolidze
The Prelims