Preview: UFC 286 ‘Edwards vs. Usman 3’

Welterweights

Gunnar Nelson (18-5-1, 9-5 UFC) vs. Bryan Barberena (18-9, 9-7 UFC)

ODDS: Nelson (-365), Barberena (+300)

He is still not maintaining the most active schedule, but it is good to have Nelson back. A longtime fan favorite on the UFC’s European cards, the Icelander has built a fun if sometimes frustrating style over the years. Leaning on his background in both karate and grappling, Nelson is capable of stretches of inactivity and bursts of dynamic offense, with his star power also helped by his odd stoic charisma. It is a testament to Nelson’s talent and athleticism that he has made that disjointed approach work as well as it has, even if he hit a clear ceiling as a potential welterweight contender. His 2019 campaign saw him get outwrestled to decision losses against Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns, which left Nelson’s career somewhat directionless as a result. That wound up being a moot point, as a cascade of injuries kept “Gunni” out of action for roughly two and a half years, after which he got a soft return fight against Takashi Sato and cruised to a relatively drama-free decision. A day short of a year later, he looks to continue moving back up the ladder for what should be a fun fight against Barberena.

A tough and well-rounded veteran, Barberena made his name as a bit of a prospect-killer in 2016 with high-profile wins over Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves, which gave “Bam Bam” enough of a name as a blood-and-guts fighter to earn some bonuses and prominent card placement. However, that hard-charging style almost led Barberena’s career to an early end. He missed over a year due to major back surgery and looked flat in a return bout against Anthony Ivy, then suffered a life-threatening level of internal bleeding as part of another long layoff, upon which Barberena put in the worst performance of his career in a loss to Jason Witt. That made it a shock when Barberena suddenly rebounded with a three-fight winning streak, albeit against a raw prospect in Darian Weeks and late-career vets Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler. Barberena is still obviously diminished from his athletic peak, but he remains ridiculously durable and can wear out opponents unable to keep up a consistent pace. A December loss to Rafael dos Anjos was a bit of a rough reminder that Barberena still has a ceiling, and this figures to be the same. Even this post-comeback version of Nelson is a much quicker striker, and he should be able to handle Barberena on the mat. The pick is Nelson via second-round submission.

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Edwards vs. Usman
Fiziev vs. Gaethje
Nelson vs. Barberena
O’Neill vs. Maia
Vettori vs. Dolidze
The Prelims