UFC 171 ‘Hendricks vs. Lawler’ Preview

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Welterweights

Jake Shields (29-6-1, 4-2, UFC) vs. Hector Lombard (33-4-1, 2-2 UFC)

The Matchup: With back-to-back victories over Tyron Woodley and Demian Maia under his belt, Shields might be one or two marquee victories away from another welterweight title shot. While the grappling ace has not been especially entertaining, he has proven himself to be quite proficient at wearing down opponents with a grinding style.

In his first Octagon appearance at 170 pounds, Lombard looked every bit the part of the wrecking machine he was during his heyday as Bellator MMA middleweight champion, as he knocked out Nate Marquardt 1:48 into the opening round of their UFC 166 encounter. The Cuban judoka has been up-and-down during his UFC tenure thus far, but the finish of Marquardt provided a frightening glimpse into his capabilities.

For most of a well-traveled career, Shields’ chin has held up nicely, with the recent exception being a 53-second knockout loss to Jake Ellenberger in September 2011. Not many fighters can match Ellenberger’s raw power, but Lombard might very well be in that rare minority. The American Top Team product can be a commanding presence as he takes the center of the cage and stalks his foe with an aggressive barrage of power punches. Left and right hooks are often Lombard’s weapons of choice, and he can unload with great speed once an opponent is hurt. “Lightning” also generates plenty of force with standing-to-ground strikes.

One of the disadvantages of having a thickly muscled frame and an explosive fighting style is that Lombard can falter if the quick finish does not arrive. Shields did a good job of neutralizing a similarly dangerous adversary in Woodley by wearing him down in the clinch and constantly forcing him to defend takedowns. While the Cesar Gracie disciple was not able to ground Woodley, he did a good job of staying busy with short knees and punches in the clinch. None of his offense was particularly damaging, but it eventually made a difference on the scorecards.

Shields is a solid wrestler capable of getting his man down with single-legs or trips, but Lombard’s upper body strength and judo background could once again prevent the former Strikeforce champion from implementing his trusted top game. As he showed against Woodley, that does not mean Shields will be lacking for options. The key will be using his standup -- which consists of basic one-two punching combinations and kicks from both his lead and back leg -- to help him keep Lombard guessing. The southpaw Lombard will not fear the knockout, but the threat of the clinch and takedown could make him hesitant.

The Pick: If Lombard gets stuck in tie-ups, he needs to create enough space to land hooks and uppercuts in close quarters. This either ends relatively quickly in favor of Lombard or sees Shields take another agonizing decision. In the end, it is difficult to pick against Shields and his ability to neutralize his opponents. Shields wins by decision.

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