Strikeforce ‘Melendez vs. Masvidal’ Preview: The Main Card

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Light Heavyweights
Gegard Mousasi (31-3-2, 2-1-1 SF) vs. Ovince St. Preux (11-4, 5-0 SF)

The Matchup: The gifted Mousasi remains something of an enigma to mixed martial arts fans. Despite a gaudy record that includes victories over the likes of Hector Lombard, Denis Kang, Melvin Manhoef, Ronaldo Souza, Renato Sobral and Jake O'Brien, the Iranian-born Dutchman seems to falter just when he is on the verge of a breakthrough.

The most recent example of this came against Keith Jardine, where an illegal upkick cost Mousasi a valuable victory against the 13-time UFC veteran. For a fighter with as many tools as he has, Mousasi should never have been in the position where a point deduction could cost him a victory in the first place. In the meantime, he has been content to fight in Dream’s ring, where he can flex his considerable kickboxing muscle.

Returning to the cage for the first time since the draw with Jardine, Mousasi is faced with the type of prospect he needs to beat soundly to continue to warrant mention as one of the world’s top light heavyweights. St. Preux is on a solid run of success, blasting through eight straight foes, including five under the Strikeforce banner. However, there is a big difference between finishing a Joe Cason on a Challengers card and attempting to do the same against Mousasi on a larger stage.

St. Preux, a former linebacker at the University of Tennessee, is not likely to be affected by butterflies -- playing in front of the 100,000-plus that inhabit Neyland Stadium on Saturdays in Knoxville, Tenn., has at least assured him of that. In his rise to prominence, St. Preux has been able to utilize effective standup to get the best of foes with lesser athletic talent. That will not work against Mousasi, who is excellent at using angles and movement to befuddle less experienced strikers. His multi-pronged offensive attack allows him to wear down opponents with kicks to the legs and body, and his jab is a worthy precursor to more powerful punches.

The biggest hole in Mousasi’s game is that he can sometimes be taken down without much resistance. While St. Preux’s wrestling skills are not on par with someone like Muhammed Lawal, he has demonstrated an ability to be successful in a grappling-based game. His accurate striking gives him a fighting chance to set up the takedown and win rounds that way.

The Pick: Taking on an opponent with the experience of Mousasi is a daunting task for St. Preux. He will have to do a lot of things right, including battling through fatigue in the bout’s later stages. Late in round two, the Tennessean will be fatigued, worn down by the all-around prowess of Mousasi. The former Strikeforce champion will capitalize on the opening by finishing the bout via TKO.

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