Despite being days away from his 41st birthday, Guida has held up
surprisingly well. It has now been over a decade since what most
would consider his peak, when “The Carpenter” managed to set
himself apart as a high-paced wrestler who was seemingly impossible
to knock out. While Guida has obviously slowed down over the years,
those core strengths have mostly held up, with some striking
improvements also helping to slow the decline. Guida’s last two
performances mostly tell the story. He somehow survived a
hellacious beating in the early going against Leonardo
Santos before staging a successful comeback, but his submission
defense remained as open as ever when he was caught in a Claudio
Puelles kneebar in April. Provided these last few months have
not seen Guida completely fall off of the cliff, he will still be a
viable challenge for Holtzman, who returns from a 20-month layoff.
A late comer to mixed martial arts after a minor league hockey
career, Holtzman is not that much younger than Guida at 39 years of
age. Given the late start, it is unsurprising that Holtzman
struggled in terms of natural instincts and technical depth against
better competition, though he has been enough of an athletic
standout to find some consistent success. The hope was that a
steady decision victory over Jim Miller
early in 2020 would be a launchpad to a late-career run towards
contention, but that quickly came to an end with knockout losses to
Beneil
Dariush and Mateusz
Gamrot. Those setbacks have aged well, but with Holtzman’s age,
it does leave his career somewhat aimless as he returns from this
long layoff. There are some clear potential pitfalls for Holtzman:
His wrestling defense has been spotty in the past, and he is also
at that point where any long layoff could be the one that saps some
necessary athleticism. However, without Guida having much in the
way of finishing ability, the bet is that Holtzman can keep things
even enough to find the best offensive moments over the course of
this fight and eke out a win. The pick is Holtzman via
decision.
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