Preview: UFC Saudi Arabia ‘Adesanya vs. Imavov’

Heavyweights

#4 HW | Sergei Pavlovich (18-3, 6-3 UFC) vs. #9 HW | Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-5, 9-5 UFC)

ODDS: Pavlovich (-305), Rozenstruik (+245)

The UFC’s heavyweight division is full of fighters on either hot or cold streaks, and two fighters moving in opposite directions collide here. As a former Greco-Roman wrestler with knockout power, Pavlovich was rightfully ballyhooed as a signing when the UFC picked him up in 2018. The promotion apparently agreed, throwing the Russian into the fire against ranked veteran Alistair Overeem for his UFC debut. That went poorly, and Pavlovich became an afterthought for about three and a half years. He ran over a few opponents to rebuild his momentum in 2019, then missed all of 2020 and 2021 due to a combination of injuries and travel issues. Once Pavlovich was regularly back in action, he lived up to the expectations placed on him years prior, stringing together first-round knockouts of Shamil Abdurakhimov, Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa and Curtis Blaydes in about a year’s time to become a top contender, enough so that he was tabbed to face Tom Aspinall when the UFC suddenly needed an interim title fight at the end of 2023. It has been downhill for Pavlovich since. Aspinall quickly knocked him out, and a decision loss to Alexander Volkov was particularly disheartening. Pavlovich unsuccessfully hunted for a knockout and then quickly ran out of ideas as Volkov coasted to victory. Pavlovich looks to reverse his slide against Rozenstruik, who in contrast has righted the ship after a successful 2024.

Rozenstruik enjoyed his big breakout in 2019, as Suriname’s “Bigi Boy” racked up four straight knockouts to go from UFC newcomer to contender over the course of the calendar year. He did so on the back of the sharp counterstriking game that has continued to carry him over the years, even if it has resulted in some unwatchable stretches. Rozenstruik is just about as content as anyone to wait things out to try and pick his spots, and that dedication to inactivity can result in a whole lot of nothing against slower-paced opponents. Beyond that, Rozenstruik’s willingness to cede initiative results in a few fatal flaws, whether it’s Francis Ngannou rushing him or opponents being able to outwrestle him at will. However, he has found a consistent floor, whether it’s scoring his own quick knockouts or picking apart opponents who run out of ideas, as Tuivasa did in Rozenstruik’s last fight. If this goes any length of time, there’s a chance Rozenstruik can coast his way to victory against a tired Pavlovich in a manner that mirrors each man’s last fight. With that said, the Russian should find some success with his initial barrage, and even if it’s not his usual blitzing an opponent for a knockout, he has his wrestling in his back pocket. The pick is Pavlovich via first-round stoppage.

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Adesanya vs. Imavov
Magomedov vs. Page
Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik
Nurmagomedov vs. Oliveira
Davis vs. Ziam
Naimov vs. Ofli
The Prelims