Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Bader vs. Nogueira 2’

Women’s Strawweights

Claudia Gadelha (13-2) vs. Cortney Casey (6-3)

THE MATCHUP: As a strawweight prospect, Casey has a lot going for her. First of all, she is a serious physical specimen. Not only is she very tall for the division at 5-foot-7, but she carries a great deal of muscle on her frame. That is not always an indication of power, but Casey certainly has it, both in her hands and kicks.

The problem for Casey at the start of her UFC career was largely one of so-called Fight IQ. Casey hurt Joanne Calderwood early and then proceeded to pull guard several times, giving up the momentum entirely. Against Seo Hee Ham, she was backed into the fence again and again and failed to impose her considerable strength and size advantage; in fact, it was Ham who shot for takedowns, while Casey decided to strike with the former kickboxer. Fortunately, Casey has made a change. Her footwork is considerably better, and she throws in layered combinations more than ever before, taking full advantage of her natural power. Her wrestling has improved, as well, and gone is the ceaseless guard pulling. Casey displayed all of these improvements and announced herself as a contender when she outstruck and then soundly out-grappled Randa Markos en route to a first-round submission win. These changes, unsurprisingly, coincided with Casey’s switch from a small camp to the well-regarded Power MMA.

Unfortunately for Casey, she faces a more experienced and highly developed version of herself. Gadelha may lack Casey’s height and length, but she is a powerful ball of muscle and very likely the strongest fighter in the division. She is also one of the best wrestlers and the only woman to ever consistently take down and control champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Gadelha’s stamina failed her in a five-round battle with the champ, but Casey cannot hope to push the same kind of pace; and, of course, she only has three rounds in which to work. Having begun her career at Nova Uniao, Gadelha’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills demand respect. Six of her 13 wins have come by submission, with the armbar being a specialty.

Gadelha has power, too. Her striking remains a little rough, but she employs it aggressively, firing counter right hands at every opportunity and working behind a stiff jab. Not only did Gadelha repeatedly take down Jedrzejczyk, but she knocked her down in the opening seconds of their rematch, as well. This came on the heels of a dominant performance over Jessica Aguilar -- one almost totally defined by Gadelha’s striking, which has quickly gone from liability to strength.

THE ODDS: Gadelha (-420), Casey (+340)

THE PICK: It is tough to make a case for “Cast Iron” Casey here, but she cannot be counted out entirely. She is improving at an absolutely stunning rate, having taken the right cues from her two UFC losses and turned around her training around seemingly overnight. Gadelha, however, has too many innate advantages. Experience, jiu-jitsu and wrestling are strongly in her favor, and she is certainly capable of at least hanging with Casey on the feet, if not outstriking her altogether. Casey fans can hope that Gadelha’s hellacious fight with the champ took something out of her, and they might be right. This is after all a pretty quick turnaround for the Brazilian after a pretty brutal beating. Still, there is no reason to call it until we have seen it. Gadelha by unanimous decision is the pick.

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