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Women’s Bantamweights

Raquel Pennington (9-6) vs. Germaine de Randamie (7-3)

ODDS: de Randamie (-170), Pennington (+150)

Given that the UFC women’s featherweight division was basically created for Cristiane Justino, it is easy to forget that de Randamie was actually the promotion’s first female champion at 145 pounds. It is also easy to forget de Randamie herself, given her long spates of inactivity and, frankly, a resume that remains shockingly thin for someone who is still decently regarded. De Randamie transitioned to MMA after an undefeated career in kickboxing, but it took a while to coalesce into much of anything. Her kickboxing and brutal clinch work could look good against lower-level opposition, but as soon as the competition stepped up a bit, things got unimpressive in a hurry. Her early UFC run was fairly uninspiring, but things slowly started to turn around with two straight wins, even if Larissa Pacheco and Anna Elmose were overmatched prospects. It was still a shock when it was announced that de Randamie would be fighting Holly Holm for the UFC’s inaugural featherweight belt; yes, the UFC was on the outs with “Cyborg” at the time, but de Randamie was still an odd choice as Holm’s opponent due to her lack of resume and star power. Naturally, the title fight turned into a bit of a boondoggle. De Randamie scored the upset win in a narrow kickboxing contest and was stripped of the belt shortly thereafter, thanks to a combination of injuries and a refusal to face “Cyborg,” given the Brazilian’s past history of drug test failures. After more than a year and a half on the shelf, de Randamie returns, with the featherweight division apparently behind her. She has now turned her attention to re-establishing herself as a bantamweight contender against Pennington.

Pennington has done well to turn herself into a legitimate top women’s bantamweight, even if that is also a bit of an indictment on the division. Her early career was a mixed bag. Tough competition meant Pennington was better than her record early on, and while her brawling style made her a UFC favorite, her lack of athletic gifts figured to prevent her for becoming a title contender. However, Pennington slowly improved, became a smarter striker, fleshed out a solid grappling game and eventually rung up a four-fight winning streak in a series of solid appearances. A win over Miesha Tate capped that run, and while a decent chunk of that result was a flat pre-retirement performance from Tate, it was still enough of a feather in Pennington’s cap to earn her a title shot against Amanda Nunes. That was where the wins ended. Nunes’ horsepower was too much for Pennington, leading to a methodical beatdown that ended with a fifth-round stoppage, which came after Pennington’s corner controversially refused to let her quit between rounds. There is still a clear ceiling for what Pennington can do, but at the same time, the 135-pound weight class is thin enough that she can still firmly remain a top contender; a win here would go a huge way towards making sure she does so.

I have consistently underrated Pennington throughout her career, and despite that, I am prepared to do so again. De Randamie figures to win a pure striking match, and while Pennington is more than capable making the fight ugly, that is also a risky bit of business here. Pennington can do some solid work in the clinch, but de Randamie’s muay Thai background makes her capable of causing just as much damage in that phase of the game. If Pennington can get in on some actual takedowns, she will likely have a huge advantage and a chance at a finish, and there is something to her being a natural fighter and possessing an innate grit that de Randamie just does not seem to have. With that said, this looks like a fight where Pennington will get stifled in most aspects of the game, and there is also the concern of how Pennington’s durability will hold up. She has been quite tough throughout her career, but the beating near the end of the Nunes fight brought about the type of damage that can sometimes alter careers. The pick is de Randamie via decision.

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