Preview: ‘The Ultimate Fighter 24’ Finale

Welterweights

Jake Ellenberger (31-11) vs. Jorge Masvidal (30-11)

THE MATCHUP: I love this fight. Not only does it make organizational sense -- Ellenberger and Masvidal are both former contenders struggling to find their place in the UFC pecking order -- but it offers a thrilling contrast of styles. Ellenberger is a brutal power puncher, arguably the hardest hitter in UFC welterweight history; Masvidal is a slick out-fighter who prefers to control his opponents from long range while mixing in a few tactical takedowns.

The devil is in the details, of course. In the latter days of his career, Ellenberger has become something of a glass cannon. Worse, he knows he is a glass cannon, and that dreadful knowledge has created a fighter more timid than he is tenacious. He did seem to recapture a bit of that old “Juggernaut” magic in his last fight, stopping Matt Brown with a liver kick in the first round. The renaissance coincided with Ellenberger’s return to former coach Rafael Cordeiro and the renowned Kings MMA gym. Even that powerful anchor in the corner could not resuscitate Ellenberger fully, however. The flinches and stutters of latter-day Jake were still there and might have proved a problem had he not found the perfect shot.

Finding the perfect shot is a tall order against Masvidal. The far-traveled veteran does have a habit of taking damage in the early rounds, but he has been knocked out only once in 41 fights and that was eight years ago. While he may need some time to adjust to Ellenberger’s speed, he is better-suited than “The Juggernaut” to win a drawn-out war of attrition. It is not difficult to envision Masvidal using his jab and rangy kicking game to stymie Ellenberger in the same way Rory MacDonald did in 2013. Masvidal is also an underrated wrestler who insists on taking down every opponent he faces as a point of pride. That may prove difficult against Ellenberger, whose rate of takedown defense is an outstanding 86 percent; however, at the very least, Masvidal should be able to prevent Ellenberger from initiating any takedowns of his own.

THE ODDS: Masvidal (-260), Ellenberger (+215)

THE PICK: Given Masvidal’s track record, Ellenberger could very well hurt him in the early going; and with the kind of power and finishing instinct Ellenberger brings to the table ... well, let us just say he could put Masvidal in much hotter water than some of the other men to put Jorge on his butt in the recent past, namely Michael Chiesa and Rustam Khabilov. Still, putting down Masvidal is not the same as putting him away, and the American Top Team mainstay should grow stronger as the fight wears on; meanwhile, Ellenberger’s history suggests he will only slow down. With Masvidal’s long-range weapons and attritive fighting style, this looks like his fight to lose. Masvidal by unanimous decision is the pick.

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