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Lightweights

Joel Alvarez (21-3, 6-2 UFC) vs. Drakkar Klose (15-2-1, 9-2 UFC)

ODDS: Alvarez (-395), Klose (+310)

Two underrated lightweights go at it for what sneakily might be the best-matched fight on the card. Alvarez has been a clear overachiever since making his UFC debut in 2019, as “El Fenomeno” didn’t have particularly high expectations after running through a weak level of competition in his native Spain. That thought was only further compounded by a flat UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov, but it turned out that Ismagulov was one of the few opponents that could deal with Alvarez’s game. A gigantic lightweight at 6-foot-3, Alvarez mixes a potent striking game with an aggressive grappling skills, typically forcing opponents to deal with one or the other while constantly avoiding danger. Ismagulov had the practiced jab to neutralize the Spaniard from range and make the ground game a non-factor, but thus far, Alvarez’s only other loss in the UFC has come to Arman Tsarukyan, who went the complete opposite route and was able to cut through his defense on the mat. Save for those two fights, respectively against an elite specialist and one of the best lightweights in the world, opponents have just had no idea about how to effectively approach Alvarez. Aggressive opponents have found themselves charging into the teeth of Alvarez’s venomous grappling, while more patient foes have just handed him the initiative to pour on effective offense on the feet. It should be a tough puzzle for Klose to crack, but given his status as one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, he might just be able to pull it off.

Klose came to the UFC in 2017 and also had little hype, but a win over Marc Diakiese quickly established him as a potential prospect-killer, even if his clinch-heavy approach wasn’t always exciting. Klose eventually rounded out his game that he looked ready for a run towards contender status by 2020, and his fight against Beneil Dariush was a big spot that at least wound up as memorable. However, a lot of that was due to Dariush’s stunning violent comeback that resulted in Klose eating a knockout loss. Klose then had a rough few years and lost whatever momentum he had left. Jeremy Stephens shoved him during a promotional weigh-in and put him on the shelf due to whiplash, and while Klose looked solid in a few return bouts, he then missed another year due to injury. Klose announced himself in major fashion in his last comeback, capping off 2023 with a particularly brutal slam knockout of Joe Solecki, and he got another solid win over Joaquim Silva in May to quietly put together his fourth straight victory. Klose might just have the right combination of skill and strength to neutralize the constant danger that the Bandog Fight Club rep brings over three rounds, but Alvarez’s approach still looks to be a winning formula. If nothing else, he should be able to make Klose work for every bit of control. Klose also has tired in some of his harder fights, which could be a death knell down the stretch. The pick is Alvarez via third-round submission.

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