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Women’s Strawweights

#10 WSW | Lupita Godinez (12-3, 7-3 UFC) vs. #5 WSW | Virna Jandiroba (19-3, 5-3 UFC)

ODDS: Godinez (-218), Jandiroba (+180)

A sneakily crucial fight takes place here, as the winner should wind up in solid position when it comes to the strawweight title picture. Jandiroba has done well to improve during her time on the UFC roster. She had a strong record prior to getting the late-notice call from the UFC in 2019 but was the type of one-dimensional grappler who might struggle to translate to the UFC level. Jandiroba’s UFC debut against Carla Esparza was a rude awakening in that aspect, but she has built out a solid striking game in the years since, even if it mostly serves as a change-up until she tries to get things back to the mat. Despite her improvements, the Brazilian’s success mostly hinges on her ability to outwrestle her opponents. That is currently carrying her impressively far, as wins over Angela Hill and Marina Rodriguez have made her a going concern near the top of the division despite some recent inactivity. A slated August fight against Tatiana Suarez would have been a solid—though difficult—chance for Jandiroba to prove her championship-level mettle, but thanks to a knee injury, “Carcara” instead returns to try and hold serve against Godinez. Mexico’s Godinez has seemingly been on the verge of a breakthrough ever since her UFC debut in 2021, and “Loopy” has had to go through the same process of rounding out her game as Jandiroba. Godinez came to the UFC primarily as a wrestler and looked absolutely outstanding in her victories, but two things quickly became apparent: Her game started to fall apart whenever she could not establish a clear wrestling advantage, and it took surprisingly little to take her out of her game, even if it was just the size and length of opponents like Jessica Penne and Luana Carolina rather than any actual skill. Like Jandiroba, she eventually went around improving her boxing, but for Godinez, it has instead turned into a fully developed backup plan. There are still some fights where she does not wrestle as much as she should, but Godinez can now win a fight entirely on the feet and even has some power to boot, looking particularly potent in a dominant victory over Elise Reed in September. A November pairing against Tabatha Ricci showed that she might need to work on her striking defense at an elite level—Ricci landed some big moments of offense even as Godinez won the balance of the fight—but that should not be a concern against Jandiroba in what looks like a tough fight for the former Invicta Fighting Championships titleholder. Godinez now appears to clearly be ahead of Jandiroba as a striker, and even if the Brazilian is more confident in her ability to pursue takedowns, it does not seem likely that she will be able to actually outwrestle “Loopy” and turn that into any sort of consistent control. Jandiroba should be down to scrap, but the pick is Godinez via clear decision.

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