Preview: UFC on ESPN 52 ‘Dariush vs. Tsarukyan’

Lightweights

#12 LW | Jalin Turner (13-7, 6-4 UFC) vs. #13 LW | Bobby Green (31-14-1, 12-9-1 UFC)

ODDS: Turner (-245), Green (+200)

The Green renaissance has been a fun development over the last few years, and the longtime vet gets another shot at a big win in this spot. Green was already well-traveled when he came to the UFC in 2013, and “King” got off to a hot start with four straight wins to get into the fringes of the title picture. However, after a 2014 loss to Edson Barboza, Green’s career seemed absolutely cursed. A combination of injuries and personal tragedies forced Green into some long stretches of inactivity, and positive results were hard to come by inside the cage—in part thanks to judges’ refusal to reward his counter-heavy and defensively slick style. Even so, Green was an unexpected beneficiary of the UFC’s pandemic-era matchmaking in 2020. Finding himself healthy and ready to fight at a time when the UFC needed all hands on deck to throw cards together, Green kept stepping into action on short notice and won a whole lot more often than he lost, making the jump from hardcore favorite to minor star. That has earned Green some high-profile opportunities in recent years, some of which he has failed to cash in on, but he is coming off two wins at opposite ends of the spectrum, beating a faded late-career version of Tony Ferguson and then upending hot prospect Grant Dawson, the latter of which took just 33 seconds. Initially slated to face Dan Hooker in a chance for what might have been Green’s biggest win to date, he now takes on Turner, another ranked lightweight who should prove a tough test.

Turner is in the middle of his own stretch of hard luck, losing two fights that easily could have gone his way in 2023, but “The Tarantula” is still a top young talent that has made plenty of progress since making it to the UFC. A 6-foot-3 lightweight who often towers over his opposition, Turner was all raw physical talent when the UFC picked him up in 2018, leading to the expected growing pains early on. Turner could knock out athletically overmatched opposition but had difficulty when forced into a tough fight, notably getting outwrestled consistently by Matt Frevola in 2019. By the following year, Turner had proven himself to be a well-rounded offensive threat with a grappling game that could put away opponents. After a 45-second win over Brad Riddell to get to five straight wins in 2022, Turner came into 2023 looking ready to hang among the lightweight elite. Through two fights this year, he has done so despite never walking away with an actual victory. A March loss to Mateusz Gamrot was a nip-tuck affair that saw the judges reward the Pole’s control-heavy wrestling, while a July loss to Hooker was a tale of two fights that saw the two essentially fight to a draw. The Hooker fight did raise some old worries for Turner, however. After Turner got off to a hot start, a switch flipped for Hooker about halfway through the fight. At that point, Turner had difficulty keeping up with an opponent willing to apply consistent pressure while eating his offense. That does raise a clear path to victory that Green might be able to follow more so than at any point during his recent career. One of his late-career adjustments has been to abandon his slickster style at times and just march forward looking to land big power shots. With that said, Green still tends to lay back and try to outmaneuver his opponents more often than not, something that does tend to get him clipped once or twice at this stage in his career. There is a chance that Turner could just end this in one shot—particularly before Green gets the chance to settle into a groove—but even if this turns into a three-round war, he figures to be the one landing the harder punches throughout. The pick is Turner via decision.

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Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Turner vs. Green
Font vs. Figueiredo
Brady vs. Gastelum
Soriano vs. Stoltzfus
Silva vs. Guida
The Prelims