Preview: UFC on ESPN 44 Prelims

Flyweights

#5 FLW | Matheus Nicolau (19-2-1, 7-1 UFC) vs. #4 FLW | Brandon Royval (14-6, 4-2 UFC)

ODDS: Nicolau (-210), Royval (+180)

This should be one of the highlights of the card, as it is a fascinating style matchup that also comes with plenty of stakes. Royval took the flyweight division by storm upon his UFC debut in 2020, scoring submission wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara France while also establishing himself as one of the most exciting fighters on the roster. “Raw Dawg” was essentially a whirlwind of violence, cycling through ideas quicker than his opponents could keep up with until the point that he found a finish. For a bit, the worry was that Royval might wind up as a flash in the pan. He suffered a major shoulder injury against Brandon Moreno to cap off 2020, then got handled rather easily by Alexandre Pantoja in his lone fight of 2021. However, Royval rebounded with an undefeated 2022 campaign, even if it did leave some questions about his form going forward. Royval nearly overcompensated in terms of tamping down his aggression, getting overly patient at times in a close decision win over Rogerio Bontorin; and his last win over Matt Schnell did not provide much insight into how Royval’s new form would carry on. Schnell quickly instigated a brawl and essentially forced Royval to keep pace until he found another submission. That was enough to have Royval on the fringes of title contention, which makes a win here hugely important. Nicolau has evolved from the opposite side of the spectrum as Royval, coming to the UFC with a patient and technical game but needing to learn some opportunistic aggression. An alum of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” who initially landed in the UFC in 2015, Nicolau was certainly patient to a fault. He racked up wins but never had a particularly standout performance up until the point that Dustin Ortiz knocked him out, leading the UFC to make him a victim of its flyweight cull at the time. Nicolau eventually returned to the UFC in 2021, and while his game is much the same, he is much more effective. He is still prone to bouts of inactivity, but his increased precision with his strikes has led to some legitimately big moments of offense, culminating in his first UFC knockout against Schnell in December. It will be interesting to see how Royval approaches this match, as this looks like a fight where he might be better off reverting to his reckless ways. The feint-heavy approach he showed against Bontorin does not figure to confuse Nicolau much and would likely just be a recipe to coast to a clear decision loss. Royval tamping up the aggression against Nicolau might be risky—again, the Brazilian has learned to hit hard—but compared to the other available options, it seems like a worthy gambit to try and overload the Nova Uniao standout and attempt to implement offensive weapons before he can take them away. In the end, Nicolau gets the nod due to the risk that Royval comes out attempting to be too technical for his own good, but there are a lot of interesting dynamics at play. The pick is Nicolau via decision.

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