Preview: UFC on ABC 6 ‘Whittaker vs. Aliskerov’

Heavyweights

#3 HW | Sergei Pavlovich (18-2, 6-2 UFC) vs. #5 HW | Alexander Volkov (37-10, 11-4 UFC)

ODDS: Pavlovich (-218), Volkov (+180)

With the UFC’s heavyweight title picture in a strange place, a win could wind up as an important result for either Volkov or Pavlovich. Volkov’s recent career renaissance has been a pleasant surprise, though it speaks to how high-level heavyweights tend to have careers that swing wildly between highs and lows. A former Bellator MMA standout, “Drago” came to the UFC after a brief stopover on the regional scene back in 2016, and he made the expectedly quick rise on the ladder. Volkov’s fights might not have been the most dynamic, but the combination of his massive height and high-level durability allowed him to stifle most of his opposition. However, a knockout blow from Derrick Lewis in 2018 halted Volkov’s winning streak, and he has essentially settled into being a gatekeeper to the heavyweight elite during the ensuing years. Volkov has chugged along and worn out opponents through sheer consistency, though there was a stretch where it looked like a long career might finally be catching up with him. A win over Marcin Tybura was a flat performance where neither man impressed, and a sub-four-minute submission loss to Tom Aspinall was absolutely shocking. Whatever the reason for that slump, it’s now in the past, as Volkov has looked as sharp as ever in finishing Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Romanov and Tai Tuivasa. Volkov was initially slated to face Jailton Almeida a few weeks ago, until the UFC suddenly announced this all-Russian affair against former title contender Sergei Pavlovich—a pairing made all the more interesting by the fact that the two men are training partners.

Pavlovich was also a highly touted signing when the UFC picked him up in 2018, and there were similar expectations that he could quickly rise through the ranks. That didn’t happen immediately, as Pavlovich was thrown right into the fire and quickly finished against Alistair Overeem, but it has been all systems go since then. Up until November, the only thing that could stop Pavlovich was pandemic-related travel issues, as he otherwise knocked out every opponent in his path within a round. Then came an interim title fight against Aspinall, thrown together to help bolster UFC 295. As absurd as it feels to say that Pavlovich had his moments in a 69-second knockout loss, the two did have a fun back-and-forth war for as long as the fight lasted. Pavlovich’s fairly adept at picking his spots while looking to spark a brawl, so this should go off the rails in short order, and it’s unclear what happens from there. Volkov’s durability and his ability to mix things up with his wrestling—despite Pavlovich’s Greco-Roman background, his takedown defense can be a bit spotty—would make this a coinflip even before factoring in that their training history together could show up in some unexpected ways. Pavlovich’s power seems like the safest bet. The pick is Pavlovich via first-round knockout.

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Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Pavlovich vs. Volkov
Gastelum vs. Rodriguez
Naimov vs. Lima
Walker vs. Oezdemir
The Prelims