Preview: UFC Nashville Prelims

Welterweights

Jake Matthews (21-7, 14-7 UFC) vs. Chidi Njokuani (25-10, 1 NC; 5-3 UFC)

ODDS: Njokuani (-150); Matthews (+125)

On some level, it is difficult to believe that Matthews is 30 years old, as it feels like just yesterday that “The Celtic Kid” was a teenaged prospect in the UFC, calling out fellow youngster Sage Northcutt after a win. Eleven years later, Northcutt is out of the promotion and possibly the sport, and “The Celtic Kid” has settled in as a solid mid-card fighter in one of the UFC’s deepest divisions.

In broad strokes, Matthews’ game remains the same as it ever was. He is a strong and savvy grappler who is capable everywhere but does his best work from top position, and while his striking shows decent power and has improved incrementally over the years, it remains awkward-looking and defensively porous. That being the case, Matthews’ fights tend to hinge on who is the better wrestler, as takedowns are an important safety valve for when things are not going his way on the feet, and present his best chance to get the fight to the ground in the time, place and position of his choosing. It is a fairly straightforward calculus of victory that Matthews sometimes makes more complicated by underusing his wrestling.

Njokuani is, in many ways, the polar opposite of Matthews. Where Matthews came to the UFC as an undefeated 19-year-old prospect, “Chidi Chidi Bang Bang” was the eternal journeyman, bouncing around Bellator MMA and several high-level regional promotions before landing a surprising berth on Dana White's Contender Series in 2021. Already 33 years old at the time of his UFC debut, Njokuani turned heads by knocking out his first two opponents in the first round, including a 16-second blitzing of the normally durable Marc-Andre Barriault.

The feel-good story came crashing back to the ground with a three-fight skid, but Njokuani responded by dropping to welterweight, where he has rattled off three straight wins coming into Saturday’s showdown. The Las Vegan’s game remains as simple, yet difficult to solve, as ever. At 6-foot-3 and with a lanky frame—especially by welterweight standards—Njokuani excels as a kickboxer so long as he can dictate the range: all the way out, where his long, straight jab and kicks can do damage, or all the way in, where he can punish his foe with knees in the clinch. While he has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he prefers to spend as little time on the ground as possible, and the good grapplers who have been able to get him down early in a fight have tended to dominate him, going back to his fight with John Salter in Bellator.

This fight boils down to two related, but distinct questions: Can Matthews take Njokuani down, and will he try often enough? Even if Matthews does not have immediate success wrestling, it behooves him to try and try again, as that will give Njokuani one more thing to think about on the feet. Matthews is perfectly capable of winning a fight in which he goes three for 14 on takedown attempts; it will be cause to worry if he goes one for his first three and then quits trying. This is a close matchup, as evidenced by the betting line, but the pick is that Njokuani will remain upright enough, and pepper the Aussie with enough jabs and low kicks, to get his hand raised after 15 fun minutes. Njokuani by decision.



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