Preview: UFC Fight Night 187 Main Card

Light Heavyweights

#11 | Misha Cirkunov (15-5, 6-3 UFC) vs. #13 | Ryan Spann (18-6, 4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Cirkunov (-125), Spann (+105)

Cirkunov has not quite been the elite prospect and immediate contender that most expected, but there is still a clear path for him to make a run up the light heavyweight division. Born in Latvia but raised in Toronto, Cirkunov entered the UFC in 2015 and was immediately tabbed as a top talent and a potential Canadian star. A hulk of an athlete, Cirkunov’s wrestling and grappling background allowed him to get one-sided wins as soon as he got his opponents to the mat. A 2016 victory over Nikita Krylov set up Cirkunov as a rising contender, and a subsequent matchup with Volkan Oezdemir figured to be a showcase bout that would springboard him into the light heavyweight title picture. Instead, Oezdemir shockingly scored a 28-second knockout and in turn exposed a major issue in Cirkunov’s game. While he has always been a bit of a boxy and stiff striker, he appears to have durability issues that turn that into a complete liability. After a disheartening loss to Glover Teixeira, Cirkunov has had a three-fight run that has laid bare the strengths and weaknesses in his game. Patrick Cummins and Jimmy Crute had little answer for Cirkunov’s grappling chops and lost within a round, but those fights sandwiched a loss that saw Johnny Walker spark the Latvian in just 36 seconds. Cirkunov still has the skills to absolutely dominate opponents in his type of fight, but he will be walking a tightrope against the more explosive athletes of the division every time out—a dynamic that is also true against Spann.

It is hard to tell exactly what to make of Spann thus far. “Superman” has some obvious talent and can hold his own anywhere, but his UFC career to date has mostly been defined by his opponents’ strengths and weaknesses. His breakout victory was a first-round knockout against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira that always figured to happen due to Spann’s youth and power, but wins over Devin Clark and Sam Alvey were performances that, while clear victories, did not inspire much confidence. The Clark fight was a messy affair that saw Spann eventually take advantage of one of Clark’s many defensive gaps; and Spann basically decided to negate his many physical advantages over Alvey by committing to an ugly grind. Again, while there is a lot to like about Spann in terms of talent, there is an aimlessness of sorts where his victories just sort of happen rather than being a result of any sort of focused game plan. At any rate, Spann’s approach—or lack thereof—finally came back to bite him against Walker, who just decided to press the issue and score a big dumb knockout. Like Cirkunov, Spann is going to struggle against the more explosive finishers at light heavyweight, albeit for totally different reasons, but he also should be a concern in the division for the next few years.

Spann certainly could win this, but it is tough to pick him against someone who has one focus and effective skill like Cirkunov. Spann certainly has the requisite knockout power to end this fight quickly if Cirkunov makes any sort of big mistake, but his indecisive pressure should allow the Latvian to score a takedown quickly and take over from there. The pick is Cirkunov via first-round submission.

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