Preview: UFC 308 Prelims

Lightweights

Myktybek Orolbai (13-1-1, 2-0 UFC) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (19-2, 3-1 UFC)

ODDS: Orolbai (-310), Rebecki (+250)

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This is a fascinating matchup between two fun lightweights on the fringes of the rankings. Poland’s Rebecki looked ready to make an impact after his 2022 win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Already well-tested on the regional scene, Rebecki checked a lot of boxes as a powerful athlete with a dedicated style that heavy on pressure and a focus on attempting to run his opponents over. “Rebeasti” continued to prove himself as a potential contender in 2023. A bowling ball of muscle, Rebecki showed off some surprisingly effective striking in close quarters and the ability to outwrestle an opponent over three rounds. Rebecki’s first matchup of 2024, against Diego Ferreira in May, figured to be a launching pad into some bigger things, but instead, it resulted in a shocking loss. Rebecki figured to outlast the late-career version of Ferreira. However, Ferreira put together a vintage performance, hanging tough with Rebecki’s wrestling and scoring a late finish once the Pole was exhausted. It’s hard to tell if it’s much cause for worry, particularly since it does seem like Rebecki’s game is what it is and will continue to be effective against a vast swath of opposition. Orolbai is a solid next test to see exactly what Rebecki needs to switch up going forward.

Kyrgyzstan’s Orolbai was a prospect to watch prior to getting the late-notice UFC call in November. A mauling wrestler, Orolbai was in the midst of developing a rapidly improving striking game ahead of his UFC debut, and through two fights, he has looked fairly complete in sticking his nose to the grindstone and attempting to dominate his opponents. He ran through Uros Medic in that debut, and while he tired late against Elves Brener in May, it was still impressive that Orolbai got a win over the finish line against one of the UFC’s most inexhaustible lightweights. It’s hard to know exactly what the balance of this fight is going to look like, as two powerful wrestlers go strength-for-strength in a phase where they rarely lose. It does seem unlikely that either will score a quick finish, and given their respective last fights, the biggest guarantee does seem to be that Orolbai will do much better in staying composed through exhaustion and fighting down the stretch. The pick is Orolbai via third-round stoppage.

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