Preview: UFC 304 ‘Edwards vs. Muhammad 2’

Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship

#11 P4P | Tom Aspinall (14-3, 7-1 UFC) vs. #4 HW | Curtis Blaydes (18-4, 13-4 UFC)

ODDS: Aspinall (-380), Blaydes (+300)

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With Jon Jones’ heavyweight title seemingly in stasis until further notice, Aspinall gets the chance to keep chugging along as interim champion until something shakes out. He also gets to avenge his only UFC loss in the process. Aspinall got a solid bit of hype as England’s best heavyweight prospect ahead of his UFC debut in 2020, but it was still a shock to see how quickly he ran up the division. He wielded a rare combination of size and speed, and most of Aspinall’s first few opponents were unable to make it out of the first round before getting knocked out. The one who did, Andrei Arlovski, suffered a second-round submission loss when Aspinall quickly pivoted to the wrestling and grappling game that actually brought him to the dance. Aspinall was poised for a breakout year in 2022, particularly after he tapped out Alexander Volkov within a round. Then came his second fight of the year against Blaydes. Some have said that Blaydes got some good work done on the feet for as long as the fight lasted, but that also happened while Aspinall was in the process of tearing his MCL, meniscus and ACL, ending the fight in just 15 seconds and necessitating a yearlong hiatus before he returned to the cage. Impressively for someone so reliant on their speed for the heavyweight division, Aspinall picked up right back where he left off upon his comeback. Marcin Tybura and Sergei Pavlovich each failed to last a minute and a half with Aspinall, and with an interim title now in tow, he looks to avenge his loss against Blaydes.

It's nice to see Blaydes get at least some form of a title shot, since he looked like a future champion almost immediately upon his UFC debut. “Razor” might have lost that debut to Francis Ngannou in 2016, but everything before and after made Blaydes look like the second coming of Brock Lesnar—a mauling wrestler who didn’t have one-shot knockout power but could still earn a stoppage through relentless takedowns and thudding attritional damage. Ngannou seemed poised to become Blaydes’ eternal foil, particularly after his next loss was another knockout from the Frenchman in a rematch. Instead, Blaydes’ toughest opponent might be himself, particularly since he has clearly improved as a striker. A 2020 win over Junior dos Santos was a bit of a coming-out party for Blaydes in terms of versatility, as he outboxed and knocked out one of the division’s best strikers in a fight that took place entirely on the feet. That was an impressive bit of business, but Blaydes might be worse off in the aggregate thanks to his newfound options, particularly given the fairly straightforward nature of heavyweight fights. Blaydes seems torn between being at his best as a well-rounded mixed martial artist and focusing on the best parts of his game, and given that his chin is solid but not outstanding, that has led to some wrong choices with dire consequences. It’s a bit cruel that his last two fights have seen him choose wrong in different ways. He was outboxing Derrick Lewis before getting knocked out on a counter to a takedown attempt. Blaydes then took too long to establish his wrestling against Pavlovich and got knocked out within a round. If Blaydes turns back the clock a bit and fights as a dedicated wrestler from the jump, this is an extremely fascinating fight. Aspinall comes from a grappling background and has looked solid during his rare moments on the mat, but Blaydes is a terror when on top of his opponents; and Aspinall still hasn’t done much to prove that he has more than six minutes or so of cardio. With that said, the 2024 version of Blaydes does like to feel things out on the feet a bit to start—as he did against Aspinall the first time—which does feel like a losing proposition for the challenger, particularly since that’s the fight the champion is likely to want. The pick is Aspinall via first-round knockout.

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Edwards vs. Muhammad
Aspinall vs. Blaydes
Green vs. Pimblett
Duncan vs. Rodrigues
Allen vs. Chikadze
The Prelims