Preview: UFC 302 ‘Makhachev vs. Poirier’

Order Now! UFC 302 "Makhachev vs. Poirier" Saturday at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+

Middleweights

#14 P4P | Sean Strickland (28-6, 15-6 UFC) vs. #7 MW | Paulo Costa (14-3, 6-3 UFC)

ODDS: Strickland (-245), Costa (+205)

With one of the UFC’s unlikeliest title reigns now in the rearview mirror, Strickland looks to get back in the saddle and reclaim the middleweight belt. Strickland was a moderately successful and fairly unremarkable welterweight up until a career-threatening motorcycle accident in 2018, after which he came back as an entirely different fighter. Upon his return in 2020, Strickland was a full-time middleweight and firmly fighting behind a pressure boxing game and upright stance that relied on his cardio to drown his opponents on offense and his vision to keep him safe on defense. It was a novel switch-up relative to the rest of the division that figured to hit a ceiling at some point, but Strickland managed to keep racking up wins and found himself as a top contender by the middle of 2022, at which point his commitment to his approach got him quickly and brutally knocked out by Alex Pereira. After a narrow loss against Jared Cannonier to cap off the year, it appeared that Strickland’s window for championship relevance might have closed, but 2023 wound up as the most successful year of his career, in part simply due to his willingness to keep showing up. Strickland’s first two fights of the year saw him headline UFC Apex cards on late notice, first against Nassourdine Imavov on the first show of 2023 and then on top of a completely thrown-together event against Abusupiyan Magomedov. The Magomedov fight was a bit of a farce as a headliner given Magomedov’s lack of profile, but it somehow set Strickland up for a championship shot. Top contender Dricus Du Plessis was injured and unable to make the date earmarked for Israel Adesanya’s next title defense, so Strickland stepped in as the best challenger available. It figured to be a walkover for Adesanya, but it instead turned into a shockingly easy all-timer of an upset for Strickland, who nearly finished “The Last Stylebender” early and kept his foot on the gas pedal for the better part of five rounds. Strickland’s first title defense came against Du Plessis in January, and while “Tarzan” gave up the title, it was in a performance that suggests he will hang around the top of the division for the time being, as the two fought a relatively even fight for 25 minutes. The comeback trail starts here for Strickland, and first up is a former title contender in Costa.

Order Now! UFC 302 "Makhachev vs. Poirier" Saturday at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+

Costa earned his title shot at Adesanya with a 2019 win over Yoel Romero that seemed to answer a lot of questions. After a rise that mostly saw him march down and bully opponents with little issue, the Romero fight proved that Costa was both aggressive enough to engage with one of the hardest hitters in the sport and tough enough to survive. Unfortunately, the ensuing five years have mostly served to make that fight look like a bit of an outlier. It would be about a year until Costa was able to face Adesanya, at which point the Brazilian put in the worst performance of his career, getting knocked out in the second round and blaming his loss on a wine hangover. A year later, Costa faced Marvin Vettori in a fight with a buildup that bordered on comedy. It’s unclear if Costa even attempted to cut weight, but he successfully got the weight limit raised constantly throughout fight week, eventually competing at light heavyweight. That bout marked another loss for Costa, but it was at least somewhat of a game effort. Costa looked terrible aesthetically and seemed to tire quickly, but he fought for five rounds through exhaustion and once again showed off his durability. Costa’s lone fight of 2022 was a compelling display of machismo between himself and Luke Rockhold. It was an impressively dramatic fight, but that also figured to be a poor sign for Costa given Rockhold’s diminished skills late in his career. So naturally, Costa put together his best performance in years against Robert Whittaker in February. Some output and cardio issues remained, but Costa threw with consistent power and some surprising creativity, even landing a wheel kick that nearly won him the fight. If that fight marked the start of Costa rounding himself into shape and he shows up in better form here, there’s some cause for intrigue. Cannonier showed that a few moments of well-placed power can outweigh Strickland’s consistent volume, and there’s the chance that some accurate offense can dissuade the former champion from his usual pressure, at which point he’s much less effective. Still, it’s hard to trust Costa from fight to fight, and given that this is a five-round affair, Strickland seems like a safe bet to win the championship rounds in a bout where he might have already taken over the lead. The pick is Strickland via decision.

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Makhachev vs. Poirier
Strickland vs. Costa
Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk
Almeida vs. Romanov
Brown vs. dos Santos
The Prelims