UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship:
Nicco Montano (4-2) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (15-3)Advertisement
Montano is underrated at this point, given that her status as flyweight champion has become a bit of a punchline, but she does probably need a win here if she is going to be historically remembered as more than a footnote. Her season of “The Ultimate Fighter” marked the second time the UFC put together a title tournament to kick off a new weight class, and compared to a fairly deep pool of talent in its strawweight predecessor, the inaugural women’s flyweight draw had a cast that did not seem to go more than three or four fighters deep in terms of realistic winners. That made Montano’s tournament win all the more surprising; she may have deserved to be seeded higher than No. 14, but with a 3-2 record and coming off of a loss to Julia Avila, there was not a ton to suggest that Montano was someone to watch. However, her well-rounded and active game proved enough to overcome the grappling attack of Montana De La Rosa and outpoint grinders Lauren Murphy and Barb Honchak, and after one more win in the final over Roxanne Modafferi, Montano was shockingly the new champ. Now comes the hard part. With Montano being so lightly regarded and spending the last 10 months recovering from a broken foot, it has been a race between former bantamweights, former strawweights and Montano’s flyweight castmates to see who gets the first crack at unseating her. First up: former bantamweight title challenger Shevchenko.
Shevchenko is one of the best female fighters in the world at any weight, but she has become something of a frustrating talent who often feels capable of more. Shevchenko became an immediate title contender at bantamweight with a win over Sarah Kaufman in her UFC debut, but a loss to Amanda Nunes a few months later temporarily squelched those ambitions; as it turns out, Nunes remains the only opponent who has beaten Shevchenko in the UFC. A fight with Holly Holm -- most viewed “Bullet” as a steppingstone for the former champ to get back on track -- saw Shevchenko counter “The Preacher’s Daughter” at will, and after another win over Julianna Pena, her title rematch with Nunes was on. Unfortunately, the fight fell flat. Conventional wisdom was that Shevchenko had the advantage, given how the first fight played out -- Nunes burned herself out early hunting a finish and allowed Shevchenko to win the later rounds -- and given the fact that the rematch was five rounds instead of three. Shevchenko, most thought, would be able to separate herself even more in the latter stretches of the fight. Instead, Nunes came out overly cautious to avoid exhausting herself, while Shevchenko just refused to initiate the action, resulting in the challenger just waiting to counter strikes that never came. Once the scorecards came in for Nunes, Shevchenko protested the decision, but as time went on, she seemingly read the room and the low odds of her getting a trilogy fight and decided to cut down to flyweight. From there, earning a title shot was a formality: The UFC threw Priscila Cachoeira in over her head against Shevchenko, and after a one-sided win, she had emerged as Montano’s clear top contender.
On the one hand, Montano being such a huge underdog seems ridiculous, but on the other, I struggle to see a phase of the fight where she will have the advantage. Shevchenko should be the physically stronger grappler, and if the fight stays on the feet, she is practiced enough that she should be able to counter anything that comes her way. Montano is not a finisher, so she will have to fight the better fight over 25 minutes, and while her combination of being active and Shevchenko’s tendency to be overly patient might make for some drama, the issue is that the more Montano throws, the more opportunity there is for Shevchenko to read something and hit her back. Add in that Shevchenko might also hit the harder shots, and I cannot formulate a path to victory for the champ here. Montano is a solid enough fighter who should settle into the Top 5 or Top 10 at 125 pounds, but she is overmatched in this one. Shevchenko wins by decision.
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