Preview: UFC on ESPN 38 ‘Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot’

The UFC makes a brief one-week return to the Apex for, all things considered, a solid card. The main event is a pleasant switch-up from the UFC's usual tendencies, as relatively unheralded lightweights Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot square off in an excellent fight that should mark the winner as a potential lightweight contender. Add in a solid co-main event with Neil Magny once again serving as a gatekeeper to the welterweight elite - this time opposite rising Kazakh prospect Shavkat Rakhmonov - and it's a solid one-two punch at the top of this card per 2022 standards. Passing by the requisite heavyweight bout on the main card, the rest of this six-fight slate is also solid; Thiago Moises gets a bounce-back opportunity, and elite bantamweight prospect Umar Nurmagomedov and battle-tested veteran Chris Curtis each get chances to continue successful UFC runs.

Lightweights

Arman Tsarukyan (18-2) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (20-1, 1 N/C)
Odds: Tsarukyan (-295), Gamrot (+245)

This is a pleasant surprise of a main event, as it's rare that the UFC eschews name value in a headliner in lieu of a fight that's just plain fascinating and well-matched, as this pairing of rising lightweight talents is. Armenia's Arman Tsarukyan was already one of the sport's top young prospects when he made it to the UFC in 2019, and the promotion certainly tested him right away; Tsarukyan's UFC debut came in the co-main event of a card in Russia opposite Islam Makhachev. It was a clear loss for Tsarukyan, but "Ahalkalakets" marked himself as a clear talent to watch even in defeat; Tsarukyan fought back every step on the way and had more success wrestling with Makhachev than any other opponent. Tsarukyan's done little to dull the hype around him in the years since, stringing together impressive performances in his current five-fight winning streak. If there was a worry about Tsarukyan, it's that he's willing to abandon defense and throw himself at his opponents in the hopes of getting some pressure and wrestling going - given that Tsarukyan's finishing ability had dried up at the UFC level, that figured to make his margins for victory thinner than they needed to be. But Tsarukyan has found another gear to his offensive effectiveness in recent fights, making him an absolute terror; he knocked out Christos Giagos in a shade over two minutes, then essentially split Joel Alvarez's head open with a well-placed elbow from top position before pounding out a stoppage. Still just 25 years old, Tsarukyan's on the shortlist of best fighters his age in the sport, and he looks to announce himself as a title contender here with a win over Mateusz Gamrot.

Gamrot was also a highly-touted addition to the UFC roster, though a much more proven entity upon his promotional debut; "Gamer" came to the UFC riding an undefeated record and as a two-division champion of KSW. That made his debut, a split decision loss to fellow newcomer Guram Kutateladze, a disappointing shock; Gamrot didn't put in a poor performance, but Kutateladze was able to match him the entire time and turn things into a relatively even fight. But thankfully, Gamrot proved he wasn't a bust by putting together a breakout 2021, scoring three finishes in as many fights, most notably taking down Jeremy Stephens and clamping on a Kimura in just 65 seconds. That was a nice bit of initiative from Gamrot, who often fails to press the action as much as he could, perhaps a holdover from his days as a regional champion that had five rounds to outwork and outlast his opponents. But as his other wins over Scott Holtzman and Diego Ferreira showed, that isn't necessary for Gamrot to find a win; both fights went relatively evenly until Gamrot found a sudden fight-turning moment that sent things towards a finish. That's an interesting dynamic here given Tsarukyan's tendencies towards moments of aggression; Gamrot is well-rounded and dangerous enough to take advantage of any defensive lapses from the Armenian, and this may be a case where Tsarukyan is the better wrestler but Gamrot is a better grappler, handing the Pole a ton of opportunities to snatch a submission over the course of 25 minutes. Cardio's also a bit of a question on both sides; Gamrot has flagged at times, but has experience as a five-round fighter and does well to fight through exhaustion, while Tsarukyan has sometimes tired but is also typically quite relentless in his approach. The bet is that Tsarukyan's willingness to take the initiative, as well as him likely being the better wrestler in a matchup of fighters that will likely pursue the takedown, will be enough to carry him through and outpace Gamrot here, but this is a fascinating pairing that should sort out a lot of things about both men. The pick is Tsarukyan via fifth-round stoppage.

Jump To »
Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Magny vs. Rakhmonov
Parisian vs. Baudot
Moises vs. Giagos
Maness vs. Nurmagomedov
Curtis vs. Vieira
The Prelims