Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rodriguez vs. Penn’

Well past his prime, B.J. Penn continues to spur interest.

The former two-division Ultimate Fighting Championship titleholder will return to the cage for the first time since July 2014 when he faces surging featherweight prospect Yair Rodriguez in the UFC UFC Fight Night 103 main event on Sunday at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix. Meanwhile, Joe Lauzon faces Polish leg lock specialist Marcin Held in the three-round co-headliner at 155 pounds.

The rest of the four-fight main card features a welterweight clash pitting “The Ultimate Fighter 11” winner Court McGee against Ben Saunders and a flyweight tilt pairing John Moraga with Roufusport standout Sergio Pettis.

Let us take a closer look at each UFC Fight Night “Rodriguez vs. Penn” matchup, with analysis and picks:

Featherweights

Yair Rodriguez (8-1) vs. B.J. Penn (16-10-2)

THE MATCHUP: Let’s not mince words: Penn looked bad in his last fight. Faced with Frankie Edgar, a man known for his wrestling and lateral movement, the Hawaiian made the baffling decision to fight high on his tippy-toes with both feet close together. It sounds like a bad idea, and it was. Perhaps this is just empty optimism, but I do not expect to see a similar performance from Penn in this, his second or third attempt at a major comeback. For one, Penn is back with Jason Parillo, who guided both Michael Bisping and Cristiane Justino to new heights in 2016; and while Parillo disowned Penn’s bizarre approach in the third Edgar fight -- he had only been invited to join his camp in the final week when it was already too late to make any changes -- he has spent the better part of eight weeks by his oldest student’s side this time.

The optimism ends there, however. We could give Penn a break by pointing out that the two losses prior to that fight were against big, powerful welterweights, when he has always had a lightweight’s frame. Even so, that does not change the fact that Penn’s last win was over six years ago; he is now 38. Penn has always been notorious for his lackadaisical approach to the fight game. He never seemed to prepare specific approaches for different opponents, relying instead on his natural athleticism and his fundamentally sound skill set. Yes, Penn will probably still flash a snapping jab and he will probably still be surprisingly hard to take down; and even now, Rodriguez will be in serious trouble if Penn gets his back. However, Penn’s “just scrap” mentality seems a product of a bygone era at this point, making him an old fighter with an outdated style.

If we look at his age and level of success, Rodriguez would seem to be Penn’s polar opposite -- the new school to the Hawaiian’s classic style. In reality, however, Rodriguez employs a flashier version of the same approach. Like Penn, Rodriguez does not seem to change up his game plan to suit his opponent. In virtually every fight, you can expect Rodriguez to fence from long, long range with his diverse array of kicks, hit explosive takedowns when his opponents close the gap and float around effortlessly in top position. Like Penn before him, he relies on his athletic ability and adaptability to make this work. So far, it has.

Words cannot accurately express how impressive Rodriguez’s last performance was. Was he technically perfect? No. In fact, his punches and footwork looked like they could use a lot of work. Did he overcome a top-tier opponent? No. Alex Caceres is an underrated fighter, but he entered the fight having won only two of his last five bouts. However, Rodriguez’s athleticism was on full display. For five rounds, he spun and jumped and sprinted around the Octagon, somehow maintaining his stamina well after the average athlete would have collapsed in a heap; and when Rodriguez did begin to slow, he found a second wind and finished the fight strong. You simply do not see athletes of Rodriguez’s caliber every day.

THE ODDS: Rodriguez (-450), Penn (+375)

THE PICK: Rodriguez’s athleticism is off the charts, and he uses it in a more dynamic and explosive way than Penn ever did. Someday -- likely soon -- Rodriguez will face a fighter who knows how to pressure, close distance safely and hit takedowns. Barring some serious developments, I predict that Rodriguez will lose if he faces someone like Edgar, Mirsad Bektic or Chad Mendes. None of that really matters here. Even a totally refreshed Penn would not have the tools to dictate pace and range against the faster and more creative “Pantera.” The pick is Rodriguez by third-round TKO.

Next Fight » Lauzon vs. Held