Preview: UFC 312 ‘Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2’

UFC 312 on Saturday marks the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s return to Sydney for essentially a two-fight show at Qudos Bank Arena. With a lot of top Australian and New Zealander talent bolstering other cards, this bill is carried by two title bouts, neither of which has ties to Oceania. Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland run back a fun middleweight title clash from early last year, while women’s strawweight champion Weili Zhang gets a particularly intriguing test in the form of Tatiana Suarez. There’s not much intrigue beyond the main event and co-main event, though at the very least some fights at 205 pounds and above are matched for entertainment.

Now to the UFC 312 “Du Plessis vs. Strickland” preview:

UFC Middleweight Championship

Dricus Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC) vs. Sean Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC)

ODDS: Du Plessis (-198), Strickland (+164)

With the Israel Adesanya era of the middleweight division now seemingly firmly in the rearview mirror, Du Plessis and Strickland run it back to see who gets the honor of trying to fend off the next generation of rising 185-pounders. Du Plessis’ rise to middleweight champion is baffling in a sense, though the South African’s success does lay bare exactly what succeeds the most in mixed martial arts at an absolute baseline. “Stillknocks” is often quite terrible technically, throwing looping strikes without much in the way of smoothness or natural balance, but that’s almost always outweighed by his combination of horsepower and aggression, with Du Plessis continuing to try and make things work even through obvious exhaustion. It’s a combination of skills that has kept throwing more technical opponents off their games, as it’s hard to exactly prepare for what Du Plessis is going to do—it’s often unclear if he himself knows—but there’s always the constant threat that he’s going to land something hard. For as ugly as Du Plessis’ technique is, he has proven to be a clear-headed and naturally adaptive fighter over the course of his bouts. It’s another part of his unorthodox set of skills that makes him an unlikely natural for mixed martial arts. After working his usual magic to eventually knock out Robert Whittaker in 2023, Du Plessis kicked off 2024 with a shot at Strickland, then the middleweight champion, that turned into a nip-tuck battle. Strickland caused a lot of cosmetic damage, but Du Plessis’ whirlwind approach consistently halted the Californian’s momentum. It resulted in Du Plessis walking away with the split decision and the title. While Strickland stewed, Du Plessis went on to defend the title against Adesanya in what now appears to be the last hurrah for the former champion turned challenger, as well as an emblematic performance from the South African. Du Plessis seemed consistently flummoxed but never went away against a sharp version of Adesanya, but once he found an opportunity to blow the fight open, he quickly turned things into a definitive fourth-round finish. With the latest round of top middleweights having yet to prove themselves by that point, the call was made to then move towards a rematch with Strickland, and it will be interesting to see if either man brings anything new to the table.

Strickland is another fighter whose high-level success has been a bit surprising, though his case is somewhat the polar opposite to that of Du Plessis. Far from an athletic wildman, Strickland is instead precise but one-dimensional in a way that feels like it should be easier for opponents to solve. Strickland spent his first four and a half years in the UFC as an unremarkable welterweight, showing off some sound technique that made him a bit of a cult favorite while also running into an athletic ceiling against some of his better opponents. Then came a career-threatening motorcycle accident that kept Strickland out of action for two years and might have wound up as a blessing in disguise. It forced Strickland to move up to middleweight, which in turn came with a new bullying approach that has resulted in a career renaissance. Strickland now fights with an upright stance and, all else being equal, would prefer to march down his opponents with simple but relentless boxing, relying on his speed and vision to avoid his opponents’ offense while breaking them down over time. Even as Strickland racked up win after win, there was a sense that he would eventually hit a hard ceiling, and that looked like it finally came in 2022 when he ate a brutal knockout from Alex Pereira before dropping a close decision to Jared Cannonier. Yet things somehow worked out so that Strickland would be a champion within months of the loss to Cannonier. After du Plessis was unable to make a quick turnaround to take on Adesanya for the title, Strickland—having rebounded with wins over Nassourdine Imavov and Abusupiyan Magomedov—was somehow the best available challenger for a champion quickly running out of opponents. The fight figured to be a walkover win for Adesanya, but the champion was surprisingly willing to cede ground to Strickland’s pressure, allowing the challenger to fight his type of fight, land most of the big moments and end the night with one of the more stunning title upsets in recent memory. Then came the loss to Du Plessis and a win over Paulo Costa that was clear if not particularly exciting, as the Brazilian offered just enough resistance to keep Strickland from hitting another gear but not enough to turn the fight into anything but a blowout loss. Strickland might be the smarter pick on paper, as he’s clearly the better game planner of the two and should have plenty of potential adjustments to make in a second fight against an opponent as messy as Du Plessis. However, as Du Plessis’ career has shown, smart and successful do not necessarily go hand-in-hand in mixed martial arts, and it’s up to Strickland to stick to his guns when he’s back facing the current champion inside the cage. If there’s a main takeaway from the first fight, it’s that Du Plessis’ awkwardness and physicality consistently kept Strickland from fighting with the level of pressure he needs to find his most consistent success. If Strickland can steel himself enough to apply consistent pressure, there’s a decent chance he wins the title back, but assuming he comes in at a similar baseline as the first fight—combined with Du Plessis’ own ability to adjust as he feels things out—this looks like the champion’s fight to narrowly win once again. The pick is Du Plessis via decision.

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Du Plessis vs. Strickland
Zhang vs. Suarez
Teixeira vs. Tafa
Bellato vs. Crute
Matthews vs. Prado
The Prelims