UFC 186 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Johnson vs. Horiguchi
Capping off four straight weekends of fights this month, UFC 186 on Saturday has garnered some bumps and bruises en route to its arrival at the Bell Centre in Montreal. Once boasting a pair of title tilts and the return of Quinton Jackson, the main card now rests heavily on the shoulders of woefully underappreciated pound-for-pound powerhouse Demetrious Johnson.
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Here he comes to save the day.
“Mighty Mouse” was last seen putting on a clinic against the outgunned Chris Cariaso to retain his title, making a quiet yet emphatic statement about his position in the MMA pantheon. Now approaching his sixth defense at 125 pounds, Johnson is walking on hallowed grounds, a win placing him in an elite group alongside Jose Aldo, George St. Pierre, Anderson Silva and Jon Jones as the only fighters in Ultimate Fighting Championship history to break the five-title-defense barrier.
Hoping to play spoiler is Kyoji
Horiguchi, a talented if not untested newcomer whose four
straight victories thrust him from prospect to contender in
head-snapping time. He cemented his spot opposite Johnson with a
clear-cut decision win over Louis
Gaudinot. Horiguchi looks to make history of his own by
becoming the UFC’s first Japanese divisional champion.
History will be made either way. Let us see if the Tale of the Tape can give us some hints as to which pugilist fate will smile upon:
Anthropometrically, there is little separation between Horiguchi and Johnson. The meaningful departures come in time-related areas. Against Horiguchi, “Mighty Mouse” will be the older combatant for the first time since he fought Nick Pace in World Extreme Cagefighting, perhaps minimizing -- as much as that is even possible -- Johnson’s distinct speed advantage. Then again, being older is not the same as being old, and standing at a ripe age of 28 does not exactly put you in a disadvantageous position.
The more significant difference here is Octagon experience. Johnson has logged more than five times the minutes Horiguchi has on the big stage, demarking a career buffer of 10 fights. That kind of experience is invaluable, especially since Horiguchi has yet to fight in fourth and fifth rounds. When you factor in the strength of opposition both men have fought, this is a steep edge for the incumbent champion, as the four men Horiguchi has beaten hold a combined UFC record of 2-12-1. That is not a typo; each of Horiguchi’s opponents in the Octagon is well below the .500 mark in UFC competition. To jump from that to a champion who has only known victory in the last three years is an interstellar leap.
Alas, these numbers can only tell us so much, so let us detail the striking matchup more closely:
Because Horiguchi has such a small sample size of statistics available, his numbers might be a little inflated, especially when it comes to the accuracy numbers. Though these averages will likely regress closer to the mean in time, they still offer valuable insight into how he has constructed his striking game.
Horiguchi is the busier striker, averaging an extra two significant strikes per round, all while eating one less shot per round than “Mighty Mouse” -- a sign of his karateka efficiency. Coupled with his aggression and consistent power -- Horiguchi has the same amount of knockdowns and one more knockout/technical knockout in a fraction of the fights -- the striking department represents Horiguchi’s best shot at success. The Norifumi Yamamoto protégé aims a lopsided 83 percent of his shots at his opponent’s head, with 14 percent going to the body and three percent to the leg. He does this primarily from distance, with 69 percent of his strikes coming at range, seven percent in the clinch and 24 percent on the ground. Overall, Horiguchi has a diverse, effective striking game that poses legitimate threats to Johnson’s continued reign.
“Mighty Mouse,” on the other hand, has more balance inasmuch as his intended target is concerned. Head shots take up 61 percent of his total strikes, with body and leg strikes making up the remaining 21 percent and 18 percent, respectively. Similar to his opponent, Johnson strikes mostly from distance, at 67 percent of his total output, but the similarities stop there. Johnson unloads 27 percent of his strikes from the clinch, a phase that has perhaps served him best in his time atop the division, especially when his distance striking is at all neutralized. Though he is a dominant grappler, only six percent of his strikes are to a grounded opponent.
The ultimate difference: While Horiguchi may be the better pure striker, Johnson’s standup highlights and sets up his world-class clinch and explosive double-legs -- and vice versa. The threat of Johnson’s grappling grants extra mileage from his striking arsenal, and his crisp, technical kickboxing also allows him to time his takedowns and bully opponents into the clinch with scary precision. Horiguchi will have to control the distance more flawlessly than ever to avoid the minefield of Johnson’s clinch game.
Let that serve as a segue to the grappling statistics:
Make no mistake: While Horiguchi is no slouch, this is Johnson’s wheelhouse. He launches takedown attempts tirelessly, often with the intention of keeping his opponent off-balance in order to give him the heat standing up. He stuffs takedowns with aplomb, especially since he dropped to flyweight, and even when his back hits the mat, Johnson is able to pop up quickly. “Mighty Mouse” also excels in scramble situations, where he snags any overextended limb with swiftness. Johnson does not strike much on the ground, but he is no less active for it; in 51 total takedowns landed in Zuffa promotions, “Mighty Mouse” proceeds to advance into dominant positions 65 percent of the time, his smothering top-game allowing him to set up high-percentage submissions.
In three of his four UFC fights, Horiguchi has attempted takedowns, and he completes them more often than not. Once on the ground, Horiguchi looks to advance into whatever position will give him enough space to rain down fight-ending blows. He has shucked off two of his opponents’ four takedown attempts in the UFC, making it difficult to truly assess his ability to stay upright, especially against a wrestling stud of Johnson’s caliber. Along the same vein, Horiguchi has not bothered with any submissions in the UFC thus far, neither attempting nor succumbing to them. Although Horiguchi has escaped every submission attempt in his career, that is little solace against a talent like Johnson; John Moraga could once boast the same thing, until “Mighty Mouse” took his arm.
The major difference between these two on the mat is how they approach the wrestling-grappling phase of the fight on a macro scale. Horiguchi is essentially a striker who likes to stay on top of opponents to continue punching them, whereas Johnson transitions seamlessly between striking, takedowns and clinch work, his efficacy in each position working to set up the next phase. Johnson incorporates his diverse skill set into a dizzying torrent of symbiotic violence. Needless to say, the more Horiguchi can keep the fight at a distance, the better off he will be.
THE FINAL WORD
As of April 17, “Mighty Mouse” was as high as a -900 favorite and Horiguchi as much as a +600 underdog, which means Johnson was tabbed as having a 90 percent win probability. When compared to the astronomical odds Johnson carried in his last fight against Cariaso, these numbers are almost flattering for a fighter who was born when George Michael held the top spot on the Billboard charts. The final X factor here will be Horiguchi’s learning curve, which is hard to pinpoint given his youth and relative inexperience. Will it be a coming-out party for a new, young champion or Will Johnson become a canonized name in the annals of MMA history?
Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
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