Preview: UFC Vegas 108 Prelims

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns from the UAE to its de facto home base at the Apex in Las Vegas for a two-week residency before hitting the road for UFC 319 in Chicago. Sandwiched between a couple of major events for the promotion, it is perhaps unsurprising that the next two Fight Nights are a bit on the lean side, and of the two, this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 108, also known as UFC on ESPN 71, is the lesser on paper. Of the 11—oops, 12—bouts, only the women’s bantamweight clash between Karol Rosa and Nora Cornolle pits two ranked fighters against each other.

That doesn’t mean fans should necessarily give this card a miss. Despite a shortage of immediate divisional relevance, this weekend’s lineup features a healthy helping of prospects including a couple who are inexplicably flying under the radar, several matchups that promise to be wild rides, and some interesting moneylines for the investment minded. Besides, what else are you going to be doing on Saturday night?

Now on to the preview for the UFC on ESPN 71 prelims:

Men’s Bantamweights

Rinya Nakamura (9-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. Nathan Fletcher (9-2, 1-1 UFC)

Odds: Nakamura (-400); Fletcher (+300)

Nakamura, like his countryman Tatsuro Taira in the main event, is tasked on Saturday with bouncing back from his first professional loss. The former U23 freestyle wrestling world champion looked largely dominant through his first nine career fights, his outstanding mat chops balanced with an increasing willingness to lean on his natural power on the feet. It looked much like the prospect-to-contender trajectory that many high-level wrestling transplants to MMA have followed over the years.

Things came crashing back to earth in January against Muin Gafurov, who hurt Nakamura badly with strikes in the first round, then remained in the driver’s seat for most of the duration. A loss is not the end of the world—Gafurov is a solid bantamweight with big power—but the optics were concerning, specifically his reaction to being hurt by strikes. Rather than lean on a lifetime of muscle memory and take his foe down, Nakamura tried to get it back on the feet and was reduced to chasing Gafurov around the cage, overswinging wildly. That only made things worse, as Gafurov teed off on him in Round 2 for a clean knockdown.

Assuming Nakamura has learned from that setback and nipped any incipient case of “striker-itis” in the bud, he remains a dazzling prospect at bantamweight: a big, explosive athlete with outstanding technical wrestling, a heavy top game and kickboxing that is better than it looked against Gafurov.

Fletcher is a well-chosen foe to test Nakamura’s rehabilitation, yet despite the wide betting line, he is a promising up-and-comer in his own right and is coming off his first loss in the UFC as well. The 27-year-old former Cage Warriors standout joined the promotion last year with a nice submission of Zygimantas Ramaska before running into Caolan Loughran at UFC London in March.

Like Nakamura’s loss to Gafurov, the split decision defeat is problematic more for the details than for the L, as the fight highlighted the shortcomings that will limit Fletcher’s ceiling in the UFC as they did in CW. Fletcher is a slick, fluid submission artist who is most effective from top position (like 95% of grapplers in modern MMA) but lacks the wrestling chops to get fights to the ground in the time, place and position of his choosing. Pair that with difficulties managing range on the feet despite being a good-sized bantamweight with decent reach, and the result was Fletcher getting stuck on the feet and outboxed by a visibly shorter man for much of their fight.

Both fighters had clear teachable moments in their last outings, but even if Nakamura has not fully corrected his issues, the matchup favors him heavily. If the fight stays standing, Fletcher has not demonstrated the kind of power Gafurov used to punish Nakamura’s defensive lapses, while Nakamura’s power remained on display even in that loss. Should Nakamura decide to take things to the canvas, he is likely to be on top every time. And where Nakamura’s striking can be wild and reckless, his top-position grappling is deliberate, which will limit Fletcher’s opportunities to sweep or submit him.

The pick is that Nakamura gets back into the win column in a big way, clocking Fletcher with punches and only following him to the ground if necessary to wrap things up after hurting him on the feet. Nakamura by Round 1 TKO.



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Nakamura vs. Fletcher
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