Preview: UFC 308 ‘Topuria vs. Holloway’

UFC 308 has arrived, and it represents one of the highlights of the year. Frankly, that would be true for whatever the Ultimate Fighting Championship put together under such an excellent main event this Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Fresh off an undeniably impressive title win over Alexander Volkanovski, Ilia Topuria defends his featherweight strap against Max Holloway, himself coming off one of the best performances of the year at UFC 300. That could do all the heavy lifting on its own, but there are two interesting fights that could each determine title contenders; Khamzat Chimaev looks to prove himself as a top middleweight against former champion Robert Whittaker in the co-main event, and Magomed Ankalaev faces Aleksandar Rakic in a battle of light heavyweight technicians. Meanwhile, Lerone Murphy continues his slow burn towards featherweight title contention against Dan Ige, and Sharabutdin Magomedov is a welcome addition to round it out, as he battles fellow middleweight striker Armen Petrosyan.

Now to the UFC 308 “Topuria vs. Holloway” preview:

UFC Featherweight Championship

#4 P4P | Ilia Topuria (15-0, 7-0 UFC) vs. #11 P4P | Max Holloway (26-7, 22-7 UFC)

ODDS: Topuria (-230), Holloway (+190)

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Saturday at 2 PM ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

With a win here, the featherweight division would be firmly in the Topuria era, a massive accomplishment given that this has historically been the division on the cutting edge of the sport. There’s not much to say about Topuria’s move up the UFC ranks, as it has been a shockingly clean rise with little in the way of adversity. “El Matador” was definitely a prospect to watch ahead of his late-notice UFC debut in 2020. Topuria’s pressure-heavy approach was fairly simple, built around big power strikes and takedowns, but he was dedicated and effective enough to clearly make an impact. That was all on display in a decision win over Youssef Zalal, which still might be the hardest-fought bout of Topuria’s UFC career to date. Topuria made some massive jumps in his next few fights. The first flashes of his brutal combination boxing came together in a knockout win over Damon Jackson, and a victory over Ryan Hall showed that Topuria had the ability to effectively take his foot off the gas when faced with a dangerous test. Some weight issues forced Topuria up to lightweight for a fight against Jai Herbert, during which he got clipped for what would probably be the one toughest moment of his UFC career. Even so, he paid Herbert back with an absolutely brutal knockout and hit a new level upon his return to 145 pounds. He was able to wrestle and grapple with Bryce Mitchell before closing the show, and a subsequent masterclass against Josh Emmett—which saw Topuria balance some brutal offense with some impressive patience over five rounds—set the Georgian-Spaniard up as the top contender for Alexander Volkanovski. Again, the championship level at featherweight has typically helped drive the sport forward from a technical level, and Volkanovski had spent years proving himself to be ahead of everyone else in the weight class, rightfully earning a reputation as one of the most thoughtful and adaptive fighters in mixed martial arts. That made it a bit of a shock when Topuria made easy work of the now former-champion, out-adapting the adapter and, just as Volkanovski seemed to be gaining some momentum, ending things in the second round with some brutal striking. While Volkanovski might have been the clear top dog at featherweight, the hard work is far from done for Topuria. Holloway might not have been able to get past the former champion, but this latest version of “Blessed” might now be the tougher test.

It is a bit absurd that Holloway is coming off a career-defining win over Justin Gaethje in April, given that he had a career that had already entrenched him as an all-time great. As mentioned, the featherweight title picture has typically been where mixed martial arts is forced to evolve, and Holloway’s 2017 title win over Jose Aldo—win number 11 of a 14-fight winning streak at 145 pounds—was a clear changing of the guard in terms of the sport moving forward. Holloway had perfected an approach among both the most exciting and effective in the sport, setting a new standard for pace and volume that allowed him to feel his opponents out in a war, testing things out and gaining steam while always moving forward. Aldo had made a career out of disincentivizing his opponents with one of those most defensively sound games in the sport, but Holloway had the durability and the disposition to refuse consenting to the Brazilian’s pace, absorbing damage and wearing out a fellow all-time great for a third-round stoppage, both in his title win and an immediate rematch. For being such a generational talent, Holloway’s title run was actually fairly short compared to other historically elite fighters. Part of that is thanks to Holloway having a particularly long leadup towards earning his title shot, but it also speaks to the talent of Volkanovski, who was able to turn back the Hawaiian three separate times. The first two bouts were relatively even, albeit both Holloway losses, with Volkanovski doing an excellent job of feinting and countering enough to stem the eternal tide of his offense; and it quickly became apparent that a third fight would wind up happening sooner rather than later. Holloway rebounded from the second loss with a win over Calvin Kattar that was one-sided to the point of being disrespectful—he managed to simultaneously outbox Kattar while talking to the announcers—and a clear victory over Yair Rodriguez. While Holloway had honed his craft, it was still enough of the same game that Volkanovski had him scouted better than ever, ending their trilogy with his most one-sided win to date. That figured to shut the door on the Holloway era at featherweight, particularly given that the hard-fought nature of the Hawaiian’s career figured to catch up to him at some point. To his credit, he has somehow managed to come out the other side refreshed and improved. Wins over Arnold Allen and Chan Sung Jung didn’t reach the electric highs of some of Holloway’s most overwhelming performances, but it did show an impressive adjustment from the Volkanovski fights. Holloway still dedicated himself to volume and momentum but applied much less pressure in terms of feeling out his opportunities to strike. It might have come off as a bit risk-averse in those two bouts, but it’s hard to argue with the results of his win over Gaethje, which somehow might be the most remarkably complete win of a career built on roughly a decade of remarkably complete victories. Holloway and Gaethje are men who have realized the value of patience late in their careers, but there was no contest as to who was more comfortable balancing that patience with aggression. As their fight went on, Holloway’s ability to force Gaethje to lead while picking his spots to pour on offense left the former World Series of Fighting champion absolutely flummoxed for long stretches. It ended in an all-timer of a moment, as Holloway dared Gaethje to throw down and knocked him out cold with one second remaining on the clock. Holloway charging back to the featherweight title would have seemed impossible after Topuria’s dominant win over Volkanovski in February, but that performance against Gaethje is the type of showing that suggests the impossible might just be possible.

It will be fascinating to see how Topuria handles this challenge. While Holloway has found increasing comfort and success in letting his opponents lead, getting off to a hot start and staying aggressive figures to be the best path to immediate success rather than giving the former champion any sort of space to work. Ideally, this would look like a supercharged version of Topuria’s win over Volkanovski. Then comes the issue that even if Topuria clearly gets the better of things early, Holloway might have the most sickeningly durable chin in the sport. Topuria is clearly a five-round fighter, as evidenced by his win over Emmett, but Holloway won’t allow him to balance offense and patience to the level that the Californian did. Holloway is going to force the champion to fight five rounds at pace, and that’s much more of a question mark. A Holloway win is completely on the table, as it’s easy to see a path where he guts out some stretches of absolute hell to take over late against yet another opponent who can’t keep up the highest pace in the sport. However, the lean here still goes to Topuria. The feeling is that Holloway will probably come out the fresher fighter even in a Topuria win, but the champion should be able to bank some early rounds; and while both men seem undeniable, it’s hard to bet against Topuria gutting things out enough to stem the tide and get a win over the finish line. This should be excellent. The pick is Topuria via decision.

Jump To »
Topuria vs. Holloway
Chimaev vs. Whittaker
Murphy vs. Ige
Ankalaev vs. Rakic
Magomedov vs. Petrosyan
The Prelims