Opinion: The Rematches Only Get Worse and Worse

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

* * *
Sometimes I just don't understand betting lines and by extension, popular sentiment surrounding a fight. Leon Edwards was, on average, a +280 underdog when he fought Kamaru Usman for the Ultimate Fighting Championship welterweight crown at UFC 278 last year. After decisively winning, he found himself...a mere +215 underdog for their rematch at UFC 286. Yes, Usman was up three rounds to one heading into the final stanza of their fight last year, and one could view Edwards’ last-minute head kick knockout as a lucky strike unlikely to occur again. However, deeper analysis reveals a very close fight. Edwards was having good success striking and even took Usman down in Round 1, soundly beating him there, but wasn't quite able to resist all of Usman’s takedowns. Part of that was due to blatant cage grabs and glove holds by Usman, which were especially bad in Round 3. Had referee Herb Dean called matters fairly, it may have well been dead even at two rounds apiece heading into the final round. I reasoned that with Edwards the new champion, the fight taking place in his hometown of London, and possibly a more competent ref, this wouldn't happen again. Naturally, Dean was the referee again and demonstrated a tough, zero-tolerance attitude towards Edwards’ own cage grabs, immediately taking a point away. That would have been fine in a vacuum but was ridiculous given the half-dozen similar fouls he had let Usman get away with last year. However, I doubt this was the motivation for the lines. From my perspective, the odds should have at least been even, if not slightly in Edwards' favor.

Why in Edwards' favor? Well, because a very important mechanism was at play; namely, that if one graphs Usman's chances of winning against Leon Edwards over time, from now until one of them retires, they're continuously decreasing.

Usman’s best chance to defeat Edwards was at UFC 278. I picked Edwards, but being the great champion he is, Usman was the clear winner for the first 96% of the fight. Hey, if the referee lets you get away with a foul, why not? Unfortunately, his chances to beat Edwards only get worse and worse after that. They had fallen considerably by their trilogy match UFC 286, will be worse six months from now, and worse still in a few years. After losing a majority decision on Saturday—personally, I scored it 49-45 Edwards—Usman talked about a fourth fight, but again, it would likely just be a much clearer and easier win for the new champion whenever it took place.

How did I come to this conclusion? It is a combination of their ages and specific attributes as fighters. Usman was 35 years old for their fight at UFC 278, an age where virtually every welterweight is in decline, and had suffered knee injuries that had compromised his ability to wrestle as well as he once did. Meanwhile, Edwards was a few days shy of turning 31, over four years younger, and had still been showing small improvements over his last outings. Moreover, consider their qualities as mixed martial artists. Edwards had never wrestled before starting MMA but had developed into an excellent grappler, one capable of repeatedly taking down Rafael dos Anjos. Given the late age at which he began wrestling, takedown defense and the ability to get back up usually only get better and better, even into one's early thirties, as the example of Anderson Silva further reinforces. So, while Usman's own wrestling is waning due to age and injuries, Edwards is only becoming more difficult to take down, let alone keep there. That also applies to cardio, with fighters in their mid to late thirties noticeably declining in a way that 30- and 31-year-olds don't. In terms of striking as well, Edwards' timing and reactions aren't declining as rapidly as Usman's. Four-plus years might not seem like so long, but at the highest level, where any small edge can be the difference between winning and losing, it's massive.

We can readily recognize this mechanism in other rematches, even in other combat sports. For instance, I picked Tyron Woodley to beat Jake Paul in their first fight as a considerable underdog. He gave a strong effort, but Paul turned out to be more skilled, with better cardio than most people expected, me included, and won a split decision. Despite pulling for Woodley, I scored that fight in favor of Paul, five rounds to three. Yet, I had no confidence in Woodley for their rematch. Paul was getting better all the time, which would even be true four months later, while the 39-year-old Woodley could only get worse. Being the smart champion that he is, Woodley recognized this, which is why his approach in their second fight was entirely different. He constantly clinched and sought to make it a rough, dirty affair, at one point even picking up and slamming Paul to the delight of the crowd. Alas, it wasn't enough, as Paul blasted him with a huge overhand right that put out his lights in Round 6.

This is generally an important heuristic. If one recognized it in the Usman-Edwards rivalry, they might have profited handsomely on their rubber match. And with rematches seemingly mandatory after any title change in the UFC nowadays, such situations will keep happening. For instance, I think this applies to the possible rematch between new UFC women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former champ Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso was considerably better than we had ever seen her before, while Shevchenko, whom I consider the greatest female fighter ever, had been in decline for a few matches. I don't know how Shevchenko turns it around, especially since so much of her style is based on quick, precise counters, which naturally decline as one's reaction time and speed do. I certainly think Shevchenko can still prevail the second time around, as she has a more considerable wrestling advantage over Grasso than, say, Usman over Edwards, with fewer knee injuries and years of wear-and-tear prior to getting into MMA. However, it will be a harder fight for her than their first meeting, even if she avoids the big grappling mistake that led to her being tapped out against Grasso.

Heed that reality well; even for legendary champions like Usman and Shevchenko, the cruelty of age and its accompanying physical decline mean that rematches with outstanding younger contenders will only keep getting worse and worse for them.