Preview: UFC 202 ‘Diaz vs. McGregor 2’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

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Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

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CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

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LIVE DOG: Rick Story. Not only is Story a big, powerful welterweight fighting a former lightweight, but he possesses a lot of traits that have always given Donald Cerrone trouble. Story is a southpaw who knows how to pressure, and he does not mind walking through strikes to do it. Story is currently set at +140 to win. An honorable mention goes to Takeya Mizugaki, whose chances of winning are smaller but whose line sits at a very tempting +415.

BEST VALUE: Hyun Gyu Lim-Mike Perry, under 1.5 rounds. There are a lot of tempting lines on this card and a lot of difficult-to-call fights. Even this one is not as certain as it seems. Perry is a power puncher and Lim has never been hard to hit. No matter what, though, this one is unlikely to go the distance. Whether Lim or Perry, someone is going down in this fight. If you think it happens in the first half of the bout, you can bet at -110 odds.

SURE THING: Colby Covington. Max Griffin is dangerous but raw, and Covington is one of the most relentless wrestlers in the sport today. Once he takes down Griffin, he will continue to do so, and nothing but a Hail Mary knockout will stem the tide. Covington is favored to win at -315.

CAN’T MISS: You will certainly be watching Nate Diaz-Conor McGregor, so I will not waste your time by telling you theirs is the most compelling fight on the card. Instead, I will encourage you to watch Tim Means and Sabah Homasi go at it. Both men are powerful and game. Both men like to strike in the clinch, and both men are dangerous at all ranges. Do not miss it.

SMOKE BREAK: Covington-Griffin. Dominance usually is not that fun to watch. If Covington wins, it will be by grinding Griffin into dust. If Griffin wins, it will be a spectacular finish, but as noted above, the chances are slim.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.