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Bantamweights

#12 BW | Merab Dvalishvili (12-4, 5-2 UFC) vs. #13 BW | Cody Stamann (19-3-1, 5-2-1 UFC)

ODDS: Dvalishvili (-240), Stamann (+200)

Dvalishvili looks to be on the verge of some big things in one of the UFC’s deepest divisions, but his Octagon career featured a shockingly rough start. Dvalishvili was given a contract by UFC President Dana White thanks to a 15-second spinning backfist knockout of Raufeon Stots, which was an amusing bit of false advertising at the time; if anything, Dvalishvili was at his best as a relentless wrestler. Dvalishvili showed that off in his first two UFC bouts but came away with two losses for his efforts. His UFC debut saw him score 11 takedowns on Frankie Saenz, but his lack of control over the fight and Saenz’s ability to strike led Dvalishvili to a split decision loss. Dvalishvili lost his sophomore effort in about the strangest way possible, seemingly surviving a guillotine choke until the final horn against Ricky Simon, only to fall unconscious and be served a loss via technical submission. Things appear to have corrected themselves for “The Machine,” who has lived up to his nickname through sheer inexhaustibility. Dvalishvili sets an inhuman pace, and while he is not the most controlling wrestler, his ability to rinse and repeat in the name of chaining together takedown attempts has led him to rack up some gaudy totals over the course of three-round fights. Dvalishvili’s opponents are never comfortable, and that only figures to get worse as the Georgian develops his striking. Despite getting stalled out often against John Dodson, Dvalishvili won the bout in part due to grimy clinch strikes—yet another way that he has found to make his opponents miserable. Add in Dvalishvili’s durability and he seems destined for contender status, even in the murderer’s row that is the UFC’s bantamweight division. With that said, Stamann, should not be overlooked.

It took all of two UFC fights for Stamann to establish himself as the spoiler of the bantamweight division. After winning his promotional debut, Stamann was matched against uber-prospect Tom Duquesnoy and wound up grinding his way to an upset win. After doing much the same to Bryan Caraway in his next fight, Stamann was now clearly a made man. He can do a little bit of everything and has a great deal of physical strength at bantamweight, which has made him a tough out for every opponent to date. However, there are some clear flaws that limit his upside. Beyond his stocky frame and lack of reach, there is a clear lack of finishing ability in Stamann’s game, leading him to gut out his wins but repeatedly fall just short in his losses. Still just 31 years old, Stamann is shaping up to be a Top 10 gatekeeper for years to come. There are worse fates.

There is some intrigue as to whether Stamann can slow Dvalishvili down, but as always, it is hard to see what he might do with that opportunity. Dvalishvili’s primary approach is simple—chase every takedown possible—and that could get stalled out a bit against Stamann, who has proven to be a strong wrestler. Even so, Dvalishvili figures to be the fighter throwing more volume and more power in every phase of the fight, whether it is in the clinch or at a distance. Stamann could have the openings to hit Dvalishvili cleanly, as the Georgian is an absolutely wild striker. However, opponents need to close the volume and activity gap with Dvalishvili via powerful striking that Stamann just does not possess. This should be all action, but Dvalishvili should take a clear decision victory.

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