Preview: UFC 181 ‘Hendricks vs. Lawler 2’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Abel Trujillo (12-5, 3-1 UFC) vs. Tony Ferguson (16-3, 6-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The main card kicks off with a fantastic scrap between a pair of hyper-athletic and talented lightweights. Ferguson won “The Ultimate Fighter 13” but has flown a bit under the radar since then due mostly to inactivity. He is now primed to make a run after wins over Mike Rio, Katsunori Kikuno and Danny Castillo, while Trujillo knocked out Jamie Varner in a “Fight of the Year” candidate in February. The loser will effectively be pigeonholed as an action fighter, while the winner will be ready for a shot at a top-10 opponent.

Ferguson is a smooth, quick athlete. Although he was a national champion wrestler at the Division II level, he is hardly one-dimensional; in fact, he owns plus skills in every phase of the fight. He throws hard kicks at all levels and slick, powerful punching combinations both moving forward and on the counter, and he is difficult to hit cleanly. He uses his wrestling more defensively than offensively, although he will shoot the occasional takedown to mix up things, and he is nearly impossible to get to the mat. He melds that defensive wrestling game with his grappling beautifully, a blend that comes through most clearly in his nasty front headlock game: His opponent shoots, Ferguson sprawls and transitions to the headlock, where he can work brabo chokes, guillotines, anaconda chokes and a lightning-quick back-take. His default mode is to pressure his opponent mercilessly, and he has the cardio to keep up an excellent output for all three rounds.

An NAIA All-American wrestler, Trujillo is a slugger of a mixed martial artist who mostly uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. He is an absurdly explosive fighter with the instincts of a brawler, and Blackzilians striking coach Henri Hooft has sharpened Trujillo’s natural tendencies with improved power-punching mechanics, consistent combination work and more efficient in-and-out movement without attempting to alter the basics of his aggressive approach. Despite his wrestling credentials, Trujillo’s takedown defense has been somewhat questionable against top-shelf competition. Offensively, he shoots a quick double that he finishes with authority, and in the clinch, he throws brutal knees and hard punches on the breaks. Outside of wrestling control positions and potent strikes from the top, he has little to offer on the ground.

BETTING ODDS: Ferguson (-250), Trujillo (+210)

THE PICK: If Ferguson allows himself to be drawn into a firefight in the pocket, which he has occasionally been willing to do in the past, this matchup immediately becomes a coin flip. If Ferguson uses his wrestling offensively and finds his way to the front headlock consistently, however, the fight is his to lose. I think Ferguson will brawl just enough to get himself in trouble, but he will land some big shots of his own to turn the momentum, work a few takedowns and take a competitive fight. Ferguson by decision is the pick.

Last Fights » The Prelims